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Graham Stephan: Market crash will not happen

Said on Nov 25, 2020, at 9:44 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“i would be shocked if we saw another sharp movement downwards like we saw in march”
Watch at 9:44My Thoughts On The 2021 Stock Market Crash
PredictionMarket crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$363.67

Nov 27, 2020

Total return, dividends included

+30.9%

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. Between then and Nov 24, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020—Dec 24, 2020+1.9%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020—Feb 23, 2021+7.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020—May 24, 2021+16.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020—Nov 24, 2021+30.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Incorrect$363.67Nov 27, 2020—Nov 24, 2023+30.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Incorrect$363.67Nov 27, 2020—Nov 24, 2025+97.2%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. Between then and Dec 24, 2020, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.5%, on Dec 14, 2020. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. Between then and Feb 23, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.7%, on Jan 29, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. Between then and May 24, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.1%, on Mar 4, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. Between then and Nov 24, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. Between then and Nov 24, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. Between then and Nov 24, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

What was said around it

obviously as you can see we got some decent arguments both for and against the stock market for 2021 although as far as what i think is gonna happen for 2021 i think we're going to continue at a similar trajectory as we are right now but on a smaller scale i don't think we're gonna have the same levels of panic and euphoria as we've seen this year and hey maybe that's a good thing but i think 2021 is going to bring us a lot more stability now that a lot of these unforeseen surprises are out of the way now that's not to say the markets can't go down but i would be shocked if we saw another sharp movement downwards like we saw in march and all things being equal if everything stays the exact same as it is today i would not be surprised if the market next year is higher than where we are right now now this depends on a few variables like how quickly does a vaccine come is there going to be another stimulus or is there going to be another shutdown and all of those are going to impact the market significantly but nothing is going to change my investment strategy for next year which is just to smash the like button an odd amount of times but now in all seriousness my investment strategy for

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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