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Coin Bureau: Market crash will happen

Said on May 25, 2023, at 8:07 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“contrary to popular belief the markets crash when the FED pivots because the latter is usually done in response to the Market's braking”
Watch at 8:07Macro & Bitcoin: This Crypto Report You HAVE To SEE!
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$414.65

May 25, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+29.5%

SPY closed at $414.65 on May 25, 2023. Between then and May 24, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −10.0%, on Oct 27, 2023. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$414.65May 25, 2023—Jun 23, 2023+4.9%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$414.65May 25, 2023—Aug 23, 2023+7.2%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$414.65May 25, 2023—Nov 21, 2023+10.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Incorrect$414.65May 25, 2023—May 24, 2024+29.5%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Partly correct$414.65May 25, 2023—May 22, 2026+86.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——May 23, 2028——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $414.65 on May 25, 2023. Between then and Jun 23, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.8%, on Jun 23, 2023. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $414.65 on May 25, 2023. Between then and Aug 23, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.7%, on Aug 17, 2023. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $414.65 on May 25, 2023. Between then and Nov 21, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −10.0%, on Oct 27, 2023. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $414.65 on May 25, 2023. Between then and May 24, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −10.0%, on Oct 27, 2023. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $414.65 on May 25, 2023. Between then and May 22, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −18.8%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 23, 2028.

What was said around it

most recent inversion too soon to say I reckon regardless as you can see there seems to be a positive correlation between a yield curve inversion and the crypto Market the authors say that there isn't enough historical data to say for sure but it appears that the crypto Market declines both when the yield curve inverts and then again when it starts to revert this makes sense considering that a reversion of the yield curve typically happens when the FED starts lowering interest rates in response to a financial crisis of some kind contrary to popular belief the markets crash when the FED pivots because the latter is usually done in response to the Market's braking incredibly the authors then acknowledge that crypto could be seen as a safe haven in the event of such a crisis and note that people in countries with weaker currencies have been adopting crypto they even admit that it's being used as legal tender in some countries and could play the role of money based that said it's more than likely that crypto continues to be seen as a risk asset by most investors not as a safe haven as the authors point out however this could change over time and I have a feeling it will change after central

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

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“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”

Jul 28, 2026

Not scored

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“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable