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Graham Stephan: Market crash will happen

Said on Mar 10, 2025, at 4:12 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“this means they either need to lock in rates when everything is high or they need to create a market crash which causes interest rates to fall and gives them enough time to lock in interest rates for the next few years again”
Watch at 4:12It’s Over: Trump ‘Purposely’ Crashing The Stock Market
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$555.92

Mar 11, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+23.2%

SPY closed at $555.92 on Mar 11, 2025. Between then and Mar 10, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Partly correct

90 days

Partly correct

180 days

Partly correct

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$555.92Mar 11, 2025—Apr 9, 2025−1.0%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$555.92Mar 11, 2025—Jun 6, 2025+8.1%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$555.92Mar 11, 2025—Sep 5, 2025+17.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct$555.92Mar 11, 2025—Mar 10, 2026+23.2%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 9, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 8, 2030——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $555.92 on Mar 11, 2025. Between then and Apr 9, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $555.92 on Mar 11, 2025. Between then and Jun 6, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $555.92 on Mar 11, 2025. Between then and Sep 5, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $555.92 on Mar 11, 2025. Between then and Mar 10, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 9, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 8, 2030.

What was said around it

keep current on your monthly payments but what happens when interest rates go up during a time that you're borrowing a lot more money and you've only locked in that record low interest rate for a few years exactly since interest rates have gone up significantly the United States is now spending more money on interest payments than they are on defense for the first time ever in history which is massive and in 2025 there's another $9.2 trillion worth of debt that needs to be refinanced this means they either need to lock in rates when everything is high or they need to create a market crash which causes interest rates to fall and gives them enough time to lock in interest rates for the next few years again even though a lot of this is just a theory some of it does make a lot of sense because 70% of the $9.2 trillion debt needs to be refinanced by June 2025 and if nothing is done that debt is scheduled to cost 1% more which is reported to be $156 worth of cost for every $1 of Revenue that the United States generates think about it for Trump this could be a huge win to refinance the national debt at a lower interest rate than usual by forcing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates like

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Not verifiable