Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: Market crash will happen

Said on Jul 21, 2021, at 0:51 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I promise you at some point there will be another stock market crash we will have more worse days ahead of us”
Watch at 0:51The Next Stock Market Collapse | 6 Ways To Make Money
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$435.46

Jul 22, 2021

Total return, dividends included

−7.1%

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 21, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −23.0%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Aug 20, 2021+1.8%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Oct 19, 2021+3.8%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jan 14, 2022+7.4%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jul 21, 2022−7.1%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jul 19, 2024+31.8%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jul 20, 2026+82.3%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Aug 20, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.7%, on Aug 18, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Oct 19, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jan 14, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 21, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −23.0%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 19, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 20, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

What was said around it

to top it all off as though things couldn't possibly get any worse a Biblical swarm of mosquitoes was invaded to Cape Cod town not to mention some say we're actually due for a stock market correction which happens on average every 1.87 years so given all of the concern and speculation floating around the internet right now let's talk about exactly what's going on the likelihood of another stock market correction happening and then what you could do about it so that you're best prepared ahead of time to make the most of the situation because I promise you at some point there will be another stock market crash we will have more worse days ahead of us and even though it's impossible to time it perfect quickly at least you could know what to expect ahead of time so that you're not caught off guard but before we begin remember that swarm of mosquitoes they talked about earlier well a good all-natural mosquito repellent just so happens to smashing a like button for the YouTube algorithm absolutely no scientific data whatsoever backs up these claims but it certainly can't hurt it helps out my channel tremendously and it costs you the low price of absolutely free so thank you guys so much for

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”

Jul 28, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Ed Yardeni: a call with no clear direction

“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable