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Graham Stephan: Market crash will happen

Said on Apr 3, 2024, at 16:53 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“at some point in the future another stock market crash is going to be inevitable is going to happen tomorrow next week next month next year who knows maybe the market goes up another 100% before it drops 30%”
Watch at 16:53The Next Stock Market Crash (How To Profit)
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$513.07

Apr 4, 2024

Total return, dividends included

+5.9%

SPY closed at $513.07 on Apr 4, 2024. Between then and Apr 3, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.2%, on Apr 3, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$513.07Apr 4, 2024—May 3, 2024−0.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$513.07Apr 4, 2024—Jul 2, 2024+7.4%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$513.07Apr 4, 2024—Sep 30, 2024+12.5%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct$513.07Apr 4, 2024—Apr 3, 2025+5.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Apr 2, 2027——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Apr 2, 2029——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $513.07 on Apr 4, 2024. Between then and May 3, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.7%, on Apr 19, 2024. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $513.07 on Apr 4, 2024. Between then and Jul 2, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.7%, on Apr 19, 2024. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $513.07 on Apr 4, 2024. Between then and Sep 30, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −8.4%, on Aug 5, 2024. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $513.07 on Apr 4, 2024. Between then and Apr 3, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.2%, on Apr 3, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 2, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 2, 2029.

What was said around it

on those best days in the market and that's not good so even though I've shared this message in the past I feel like it's especially important to share again today because I'm seeing a lot more stock market Euphoria a lot of new investors beginning to enter the market and a lot of people investing because prices are just continually going up but even though the market has so far done really well just be conscious that as fast as it could go up it could also go down and at the end of the day at some point in the future another stock market crash is going to be inevitable is going to happen tomorrow next week next month next year who knows maybe the market goes up another 100% before it drops 30% anybody can make a prediction who knows what's going to happen but at least when you expect that it will happen at some point in the future and you prepare for it ahead of time by making sure you have the emergency fund you're properly Diversified and you know what to expect you could at least be better prepared not to make any mistakes like not subscribing and hitting the like button if you haven't done that already so with that said thank you so much and as usual if you want more information

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Not verifiable