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Joseph Carlson: Market crash will not happen

Said on May 19, 2025, at 14:40 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I don't think that this is going to crash the market. It's not again new information.”
Watch at 14:40United Health Group Stock Drops 50% and Moody’s Lowers US Credit Rating
PredictionMarket crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$592.85

May 20, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+25.2%

SPY closed at $592.85 on May 20, 2025. Between then and May 19, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −8.9%, on Mar 30, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$592.85May 20, 2025—Jun 18, 2025+0.8%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$592.85May 20, 2025—Aug 15, 2025+8.9%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$592.85May 20, 2025—Nov 14, 2025+14.0%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$592.85May 20, 2025—May 19, 2026+25.2%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——May 18, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——May 17, 2030——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $592.85 on May 20, 2025. Between then and Jun 18, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.3%, on May 23, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $592.85 on May 20, 2025. Between then and Aug 15, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.4%, on Aug 1, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $592.85 on May 20, 2025. Between then and Nov 14, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.0%, on Oct 10, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $592.85 on May 20, 2025. Between then and May 19, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −8.9%, on Mar 30, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 18, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 17, 2030.

What was said around it

doesn't cut the deficit. And this data was not created by Moody's or S&P Global. This is from Piper Sandler and other thirdparty analysis firms. They're looking at this saying that we're simply not cutting enough. Moody's and S&P Global and Fitch, which all agree that the credit rating has been lowered on the US government over a year's past, would probably upgrade the credit rating of the US government if this ratio went down. if debt to GDP decreased, if the US government was paying 3% on its debt obligations and not seven. Now, having said all of that, I don't think that this is going to crash the market. It's not again new information. This is something that we've seen deteriorate over a long period of time. Everyone knows this is a problem that needs to be fixed. And Moody's and S&B Global and Fitch rating the US government isn't quite as meaningful as when they rate an individual company. After all, there's just not as many alternatives to the United States of America as there is to a normal publicly traded company. And in terms of this downgrade, we have people like Tom Lee being asked what investors should do. Should they consider this news in part of their investing plan? I don't

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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