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Coin Bureau: Market crash — not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

Said on Aug 30, 2022, at 4:05 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“it's not unreasonable to expect a similar situation this time around especially since a 20 decline would be consistent with the roughly 40 drop the crypto market needs to see to reach its bear market lows at least according to our calculations”
Watch at 4:05Crypto News: ETH, ADA, Twitter, Jackson Hole, BlackRock & More!
PredictionMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

What was said around it

stop the inflationary forces of the fiscal policies that continue to be passed in the united states such as the recent student loan forgiveness program which arguably announced to another round of stimulus if that wasn't bad enough the fed is scheduled to accelerate its quantitative tightening come september which is literally later this week for context the last time the fed started reducing its balance sheet the stock market crashed by 20 percent in the months that followed it's not unreasonable to expect a similar situation this time around especially since a 20 decline would be consistent with the roughly 40 drop the crypto market needs to see to reach its bear market lows at least according to our calculations now i'll be doing an in-depth video about what happened at jackson hole and what the fed could do going forward later this week so stay tuned for that now even though the crypto market is likely headed lower in the medium term it's quite possible that it will still see another recovery in the short term i say this because the scary shakeout we saw over the weekend was mostly due to leveraged traders getting liquidated now as painful as this was it wiped the crypto market clean

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”

Jul 28, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Ed Yardeni: a call with no clear direction

“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable