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Coin Bureau: Market crash will happen

Said on Mar 23, 2025, at 21:00 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“you could say a bond  market crisis is the biggest risk to the markets   above and beyond the tariffs”
Watch at 21:00This Tax Could Collapse the Market — And It’s Gaining Support
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$574.08

Mar 24, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+15.5%

SPY closed at $574.08 on Mar 24, 2025. Between then and Mar 23, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Partly correct

90 days

Partly correct

180 days

Partly correct

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$574.08Mar 24, 2025—Apr 22, 2025−8.2%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$574.08Mar 24, 2025—Jun 20, 2025+3.8%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$574.08Mar 24, 2025—Sep 19, 2025+16.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct$574.08Mar 24, 2025—Mar 23, 2026+15.5%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 22, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 22, 2030——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $574.08 on Mar 24, 2025. Between then and Apr 22, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $574.08 on Mar 24, 2025. Between then and Jun 20, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $574.08 on Mar 24, 2025. Between then and Sep 19, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $574.08 on Mar 24, 2025. Between then and Mar 23, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −13.7%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 22, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 22, 2030.

What was said around it

can see this by looking   at the balance of the treasury general account on  the Federal Reserve website as you can see there's   currently around $500 billion left to spend and  more money will come in from taxes in April this   means that the US government could run out of  money sometime over the summer if the debt ceiling   isn't raised by then it stands to reason that the  Trump Administration would probably not be able   to tax inflows on foreign Capital if there's  a bond bond market crisis that causes foreign   investors to flee as such you could say a bond  market crisis is the biggest risk to the markets   above and beyond the tariffs and that's because a  bond market crisis would destroy confidence in US   markets whereas tariffs just destroy confidence  in the US economy as horrible as it sounds uh   the fact of the matter is that markets are more  important than the economy at this stage because   they're necessary to get the economy back on  track if anything happens that causes faith in   the US markets to fall it will not be possible to  leverage them as a means of improving the actual   economy come to think of it this is why some  foreign investors have started selling

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

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Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

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“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

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“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable