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Graham Stephan: Market crash will not happen

Said on May 18, 2026, at 15:04 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”
Watch at 15:04It Started: The US Debt Bomb Just Imploded
PredictionMarket crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$733.73

May 19, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+6.1%

SPY closed at $733.73 on May 19, 2026. Between then and Aug 14, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.5%, on Jun 10, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$733.73May 19, 2026—Jun 17, 2026+1.0%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$733.73May 19, 2026—Aug 14, 2026+6.1%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Pending——Nov 13, 2026——
1 yearR-CRASH v4Pending——May 18, 2027——
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——May 17, 2029——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——May 16, 2031——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $733.73 on May 19, 2026. Between then and Jun 17, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.5%, on Jun 10, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $733.73 on May 19, 2026. Between then and Aug 14, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.5%, on Jun 10, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 13, 2026.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 18, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 17, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 16, 2031.

What was said around it

consumers then have less money left over after paying for credit cards, auto loans, insurance, and everything else that's going up in price. That's why no, I don't think this means the market's going to collapse tomorrow morning, and maybe you could go back at this and it ages terribly. But I do think that this is a sign that the free money era is really coming to a bit of an end, at least for the foreseeable future. And as a result of that, everything has to readjust to a market where interest rates are staying higher for longer. To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the financial system that's probably going to result in either of these two scenarios. First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in. However, there is a bit of a catch here because if the Fed steps in too soon and lowers interest rates before the economy can handle it, then inflation could get a lot worse. But if they wait too long, they risk letting higher interest rates hurt the economy, which also has its own consequences.

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

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