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Coin Bureau: Market crash will happen (a fall of at least 20%)

Said on Sep 4, 2022, at 12:14 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“what happens when the stock market crashes by another 20 maybe even 30 percent while all other assets where the middle class store their wealth like houses and cars start to crash too”
Watch at 12:14Retail CRYPTO BANS Are Here! What It Could Mean For YOU!
PredictionMarket crashwill happen (a fall of at least 20%)Checked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$390.76

Sep 6, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+17.4%

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. Between then and Sep 1, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.9%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Partly correct

90 days

Partly correct

180 days

Partly correct

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$390.76Sep 6, 2022—Oct 4, 2022−2.9%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$390.76Sep 6, 2022—Dec 2, 2022+4.6%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$390.76Sep 6, 2022—Mar 3, 2023+4.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct$390.76Sep 6, 2022—Sep 1, 2023+17.4%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Partly correct$390.76Sep 6, 2022—Sep 3, 2025+71.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Sep 3, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. Between then and Oct 4, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.7%, on Sep 30, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. Between then and Dec 2, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.9%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. Between then and Mar 3, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.9%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. Between then and Sep 1, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.9%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. Between then and Sep 3, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −18.8%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 3, 2027.

What was said around it

continue to pour record amounts of money into the market this is believed to be because retail investors can see that the markets quickly recovered after all recent crashes and many of them are still in the green overall due to the appreciation of house prices and other assets they own in other words retail investors haven't capitulated yet that last word is key because it suggests that the stock market is headed lower and all the bearish macro factors certainly suggest this is the case so riddle me this what happens when the stock market crashes by another 20 maybe even 30 percent while all other assets where the middle class store their wealth like houses and cars start to crash too that's right you're going to have lots of retail investors demanding regulation and retribution if you need any evidence of this order of events look no further than the crypto market since the crypto market crash in may we've seen no shortage of lawsuits alleging that certain cryptocurrencies are securities that certain exchanges engaged in market manipulation and other such shenanigans more importantly we've seen countries around the world announce that they're going to start clamping down on crypto or

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

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“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”

Jul 28, 2026

Not scored

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“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable