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Graham Stephan: Market crash will happen

Said on Aug 19, 2025, at 0:43 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I promise at some point there will be another stock market drop and bare market.”
Watch at 0:43BREAKING: The Largest Bubble In Stock Market History
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$638.11

Aug 20, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+21.9%

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Aug 19, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −8.9%, on Mar 30, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Sep 18, 2025+3.8%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Nov 17, 2025+4.6%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Feb 13, 2026+7.5%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Aug 19, 2026+21.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 18, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 16, 2030——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Sep 18, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.3%, on Sep 2, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Nov 17, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.2%, on Nov 17, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Feb 13, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Nov 20, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Aug 19, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −8.9%, on Mar 30, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 18, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 16, 2030.

What was said around it

flooding into the markets, and the AI boom is now officially bigger than the dot bubble. Or I guess in other words, the market's currently believed to be grossly overvalued, given that meme stocks are starting to make a comeback and investors are beginning to speculate on anything that they can. So given the nervousness and excitement over today's prices, we should talk about exactly what's happening, the likelihood of another stock market drop coming sometime soon, and then how you could best prepare ahead of time to make the most of the situation because I promise at some point there will be another stock market drop and bare market. And even though we can't predict it every single time, if you just know what to look out for, you could potentially make a lot of money. But really quick, if you find this helpful, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already. I know it's stupid for me to keep asking for it, but it does help out tremendously. And as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a hermit crab. So, thanks so much. And also, big thank you to the Gemini credit card for sponsoring this video, but more on that later.

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Not verifiable