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Graham Stephan: Market crash will not happen

Said on Aug 3, 2026, at 12:27 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”
Watch at 12:27Japan’s Currency Crisis Is Now America’s Problem
PredictionMarket crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$757.67

Aug 3, 2026

Total return, dividends included

0.0%

SPY closed at $757.67 on Aug 3, 2026. Between then and Oct 30, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.1%, on Sep 16, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$757.67Aug 3, 2026—Sep 2, 2026+1.0%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$757.67Aug 3, 2026—Oct 30, 20260.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Pending——Jan 29, 2027——
1 yearR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 3, 2027——
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 2, 2029——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 1, 2031——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $757.67 on Aug 3, 2026. Between then and Sep 2, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.1%, on Sep 1, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $757.67 on Aug 3, 2026. Between then and Oct 30, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.1%, on Sep 16, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 29, 2027.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 3, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 2, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 1, 2031.

What was said around it

intervene really shows that this is not a nothing burger, and it shows us that the United States is more intertwined than most of us expected. It's very much an us problem, too. However, in terms of how this plays out, I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal, especially if the Bank of Japan finally hikes enough that the carry trade stops being worth it. Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks. But, then again, anything could happen. That's why I've been using this as an opportunity to buy the dip. If stocks drop even further, I tend to buy even more. And I know everyone hates me saying this, but I just stay the course. I keep buying in, and no matter what, I hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already. So, with that said, thank you so much for watching, and as always, if you want early access to videos like this, as well as a bonus

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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