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Coin Bureau: Market crash — not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

Said on Jan 28, 2023, at 8:25 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“this means that Japan can only delay the inevitability that either the Yen will go to zero or that the government will default on its debt”
Watch at 8:25Will the United States Default!? Debt Ceiling Explained!!
PredictionMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

What was said around it

of Last Resort like the international monetary fund or IMF for a dollar denominated loan instead of selling U.S bonds for U.S dollars to buy yen the boj can ask the IMF for a US dollar loan and use those US dollars to buy yen the problem there is that IMF loans come with lots of conditions and usually these conditions involve changing laws for the benefit of the US and its allies the IMF also doesn't have the billions of dollars needed to fully bail out an advanced economy like Japan at best it can only provide temporary Aid this means that Japan can only delay the inevitability that either the Yen will go to zero or that the government will default on its debt historically governments sacrifice their National currencies to protect themselves but it begs the question of what happens when governments default the answer is that the government May issue new durations of debt change the terms on existing durations of debt or convince bondholders to accept a smaller repayment and yes a country can recover from a default Greece Lebanon and Syria have all defaulted in recent years and still exist but the defaulting country gets downgraded making it harder to find Bond buyers and interest rates

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”

Jul 28, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Ed Yardeni: a call with no clear direction

“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable