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Graham Stephan: Market crash will happen

Said on Aug 19, 2025, at 8:06 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“at some point in the future, the market will drop again. We just don't know when.”
Watch at 8:06BREAKING: The Largest Bubble In Stock Market History
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$638.11

Aug 20, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+21.9%

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Aug 19, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −8.9%, on Mar 30, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Sep 18, 2025+3.8%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Nov 17, 2025+4.6%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Feb 13, 2026+7.5%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Incorrect$638.11Aug 20, 2025—Aug 19, 2026+21.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 18, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 16, 2030——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Sep 18, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.3%, on Sep 2, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Nov 17, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.2%, on Nov 17, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Feb 13, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Nov 20, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $638.11 on Aug 20, 2025. Between then and Aug 19, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −8.9%, on Mar 30, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 18, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 16, 2030.

What was said around it

description. Thank you so much. And now, let's get back to the topic at hand, which is staying profitable. To start, I first want to clarify that I'm not suggesting the stock market's going to crash anytime soon or that you should sell now and try to buy back in in the future when prices are lower because the chart says it's high. Real talk, if I even had the capability to predict one or two market crashes in a lifetime, I'd probably be a billionaire. Really, all we know is that it's never a good idea to let hype and excitement lead your investing decisions. And at some point in the future, the market will drop again. We just don't know when. So, if you could at least plan ahead for this, it will make a huge difference. Like, first starting out with making sure you have a 3 to six month emergency fund. I know I sound like a broken record every time I say this in every single video, but it's true. Having 3 to 6 months worth of your expenses saved up in cash is one of the best ways to make it through a market drop. That way, you're not going to be forced to sell your investments at a time when you need them the most and they might be down in price. Second, it's crucial to have a balanced portfolio.

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Not verifiable