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Coin Bureau: Market crash — not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

Said on Sep 15, 2024, at 20:46 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“it's possible that the next financial crisis will be caused by a stable coin issuer going under because of some external shock”
Watch at 20:46Watch Out For CBDCs! Can You Stop This Digital Dystopia?!
PredictionMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names crypto; this rule reads the US stock market (SPY), with stock-market thresholds.

What was said around it

controls could be imposed to protect the solvency of the stable coin issuer itself in case you forgot stable coins are backed by government debt this means that when you buy a stable coin government debt is bought behind the scenes and vice versa if confidence in the stable coin collapses then it would result in lots of government debt sales and lots of volatility in turn this could risk crashing the financial system because government debt is often used as the collateral for large loans particularly US Government debt come to think of it it's possible that the next financial crisis will be caused by a stable coin issuer going under because of some external shock and it's possible that this external shock could be due to the exponential po Al Rising government debts especially in the US if this trend continues Bond investors could dump causing bond prices to fall and leading to questions about whether stable coins are fully backed due to the drop in collateral value in turn that would lead to a run on stable coins increasing bond market volatility further and turning stable coins into the perfect scapegoat that could be used to justify the rollout of cbdcs by governments but that's a topic

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”

Jul 28, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Ed Yardeni: a call with no clear direction

“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable