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Joseph Carlson: Market crash will happen

Said on May 10, 2022, at 16:14 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“that means that it could go throughout the remainder of 2022 or even longer”
Watch at 16:14Don't Buy The Dip (They're Warning Us)
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$392.75

May 11, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+6.9%

SPY closed at $392.75 on May 11, 2022. Between then and May 10, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −16.7%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Partly correct

180 days

Partly correct

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$392.75May 11, 2022—Jun 9, 2022+2.2%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$392.75May 11, 2022—Aug 8, 2022+5.6%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$392.75May 11, 2022—Nov 4, 2022−3.4%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct$392.75May 11, 2022—May 10, 2023+6.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Partly correct$392.75May 11, 2022—May 9, 2025+50.1%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——May 7, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $392.75 on May 11, 2022. Between then and Jun 9, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.6%, on May 19, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $392.75 on May 11, 2022. Between then and Aug 8, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.2%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $392.75 on May 11, 2022. Between then and Nov 4, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −16.7%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $392.75 on May 11, 2022. Between then and May 10, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −16.7%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $392.75 on May 11, 2022. Between then and May 9, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −18.8%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 7, 2027.

What was said around it

the s p 500 since 1950 there's been 15 and in each case people cannot time the bottom of the market it is frivolous it's not worth trying and the thing that you should be trying to do is take advantage of good quality companies falling in price that you know have a very bright future and eventually when the market turns back bullish investors will want to buy over the past 70 years we've had 15 bear markets in the s p 500 they've averaged a decline of 30.2 percent they've gone on on average 338 days so just under a year so we're around seven months in ours that means that it could go throughout the remainder of 2022 or even longer some bear markets like the worst ones last almost three years that would be a tough bear market but even in those cases the investors that stuck with it and continually dollar cost averaged in were heavily rewarded over the next 10 to 20 years so having the perseverance and the determination and the resolve to stay in the stock market during these times is critical becoming discouraged and bearish and having pessimism take over and discourage you from sticking with your plan is probably the worst thing that you can do historically speaking every single bear

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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