Graham Stephan, relaying Ed Yardeni: a call with no clear direction

Said on Jul 27, 2026, at 12:54 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”
Watch at 12:54The AI Bubble Just Collapsed — A Warning For America
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Relayed

Attributed to Ed Yardeni — not scored

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Attributed to Ed Yardeni — not scored

What was said around it

everything goes correctly, that there are no bumps along the way. But earlier this year, that very same Goldman Sachs published a scenario where an oil shock from the Iran conflict drags the S&P 500 down to 5400. And surprisingly, the spread between their bull case and bear case was the widest range they've published since 2020, which is just a fancy way of saying that the range of outcomes right now is enormous. Separate from that, Barclays has mapped out a bear case near 5900, and the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures. That's why when you actually begin to stress test the bull case, holes start to appear with the first being, number one, really high earnings expectations. Remember, the bull case depends on 24% earnings growth actually happening. Everything is priced to near perfection. It assumes that we're going to see sustained double-digit revenue growth, continued margin expansion, successful AI monetization, no recession, and no spike in interest rates. But, here's the math that nobody wants

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”

Aug 3, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days0.0%

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”

Jul 28, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”

Jun 4, 2026

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket crashwill not happen

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“there is an $874 million cluster of leveraged long liquidations sitting just below the current price.”

May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable