As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 27 calls about a housing crash that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the Case-Shiller national home price index on FRED. At one year: 12 correct, 2 incorrect, 2 partly correct, 4 still open. The other 7 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Own predictions
27
4 said it would happen · 18 said it would not
Correct / incorrect after 1 year
✓ 12 Correct/✗ 2 Incorrect
plus 2 partly correct and 0 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.
Still open
4
Windows not yet closed
Housing crash and the predictions about it
HPIPONM226N · indexRecession (NBER)Said it would happenSaid it would not happen
The verdicts on this page are judged on one index and the chart draws another. The first may not be charted here without its publisher's permission, so the chart shows a public index of the same market, for reference. The two can differ.
Judged on: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED
Chart: FHFA purchase-only House Price Index, United States: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency via FRED, latest published figures. Grey bands are recessions.
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 30 days
Correct so far · 30 days
Reading when said
337.31
Jul 22, 2026
Reading at close
336.74
Aug 21, 2026
Change
−0.56
The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 337.3 in July 2026, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.2%, in August 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days
Reading when said
329.94
Mar 25, 2026
Reading at close
336.66
Jun 23, 2026
Change
+6.73
The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 329.9 in March 2026, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2026, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Correct so far · 180 days
Reading when said
328.15
Nov 13, 2025
Reading at close
335.1
May 12, 2026
Change
+6.95
The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.1 in November 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and May 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.5%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.
“On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash.”
Watch at 9:12BREAKING: Federal Reserve JUST SLASHED RATES – Massive Pivot Ahead!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Correct so far · 180 days
Reading when said
328.94
Sep 17, 2025
Reading at close
329.94
Mar 16, 2026
Change
+1
The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.9 in September 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.7%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct
Reading when said
330.02
Aug 27, 2025
Reading at close
336.74
Aug 27, 2026
Change
+6.72
The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 330.0 in August 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.0%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.
“the bad
news isn't that the market is going to crash the bad news is that it isn't”
Watch at 0:25Housing Market in 2025: No Crash, Just Collapse in Slow Motion
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored
How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
“we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets.”
Watch at 12:50The Housing Market Just Flipped – Sellers Panicking!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct
Reading when said
331.51
Jun 9, 2025
Reading at close
336.66
Jun 9, 2026
Change
+5.15
The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 331.5 in June 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.5%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.
Housing market calls by finance YouTubers, checked against Case-Shiller and Freddie Mac. House prices are judged on the growth rate, not the price level.
Graham Stephan's own calls on housing, rates, stocks and Bitcoin, each quoted to the second and checked against real prices and FRED data.
Questions people ask
What have finance YouTubers predicted about a housing crash?
As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 27 calls about a housing crash that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the Case-Shiller national home price index on FRED. At one year: 12 correct, 2 incorrect, 2 partly correct, 4 still open. The other 7 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
How is a call about a housing crash checked?
Against the Case-Shiller national home price index on FRED, using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
Is this investment advice?
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.
Every count on this page includes repeats: a call made again in a later video counts again, so the counts can differ from a channel's record, which counts each distinct call once.
