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Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Mar 25, 2026, at 14:05 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I don't think we're headed for a housing crash because there are too many sellers with too much equity for prices to meaningfully fall.”
Watch at 14:05WTF Just Happened To The Housing Market?!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days

Reading when said

329.94

Mar 25, 2026

Reading at close

336.66

Jun 23, 2026

Change

+6.73

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 329.9 in March 2026, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2026, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct329.94332.68Apr 24, 2026+2.74—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct329.94336.66Jun 23, 2026+6.73—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Pending——Sep 21, 2026——
1 yearR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 25, 2027——
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 24, 2029——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 24, 2031——
Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 329.9 in March 2026, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and April 2026, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 329.9 in March 2026, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2026, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 21, 2026.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 25, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 24, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 24, 2031.

What was said around it

could be developed for affordable housing. And even though most of the land is located in an area that no one would reasonably want to live in, the Wall Street Journal estimated that 7.3% of it already overlaps with existing cities. So, there is something there, but it probably wouldn't show up for at least best case scenario, another 5 to 10 years. So, in terms of my own thoughts and what all of this realistically means for you, here's what you need to know. In terms of what I actually think is going to happen, the answer is no. I don't think we're headed for a housing crash because there are too many sellers with too much equity for prices to meaningfully fall. Although, I do think the era of easy money in real estate is over. Like really for the last few decades, you could buy any property in any condition for any price and long-term you'd be just fine. But, those days are long gone. In today's market, you really have to do your research. Check the location, make sure the price you're paying is worth it. Look at your entire cost and determine how long you're going to keep it for and if it even makes sense to buy. That's why I'm beginning to think that you can score some good deals right

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“but it is to say that you shouldn't be waiting for a 30% crash that'll probably never happen.”

Jul 22, 2026 · after 30 days

Correct so far · 30 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“That is why the chance of a 2008 style crash happening from something like this relatively unlikely in the foreseeable future.”

Nov 13, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash.”

Sep 17, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think national home prices are going to crash.”

Aug 27, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the bad  news isn't that the market is going to crash the   bad news is that it isn't”

Jun 29, 2025

Not scored

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets.”

Jun 9, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct