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Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Jul 22, 2026, at 14:58 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“but it is to say that you shouldn't be waiting for a 30% crash that'll probably never happen.”
Watch at 14:58WTF Is Happening To The Housing Market?!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 30 days
Correct so far · 30 days

Reading when said

337.31

Jul 22, 2026

Reading at close

336.74

Aug 21, 2026

Change

−0.56

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 337.3 in July 2026, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.2%, in August 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Pending

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct337.31336.74Aug 21, 2026−0.56—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Pending——Oct 20, 2026——
180 daysR-CRASH v4Pending——Jan 18, 2027——
1 yearR-CRASH v4Pending——Jul 22, 2027——
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Jul 21, 2029——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Jul 21, 2031——
Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 337.3 in July 2026, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.2%, in August 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 20, 2026.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 18, 2027.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 22, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 21, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 21, 2031.

What was said around it

wipes everybody out that no one sees coming it's unlikely that housing prices are going to be crashing anytime soon. Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck but that doesn't mean that everyone should just give up. So in terms of how to approach this going forward number one don't wait for a housing crash. Now that's not to say that markets can't take because some markets absolutely will fall in price but it is to say that you shouldn't be waiting for a 30% crash that'll probably never happen. Instead if the numbers work for you today on a home that you could comfortably afford even if your income drops that you intend on keeping for at least 7 to 10 years and the numbers work out in your favor then by all means do it. Number two you should refinance if rates drop. Again if you buy something today that you could genuinely afford and rates do eventually drop, and you could refinance to save some money, great. By all means, go for it. But, don't expect this to happen, because as we've all seen, rates have stayed significantly higher for much

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think we're headed for a housing crash because there are too many sellers with too much equity for prices to meaningfully fall.”

Mar 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“That is why the chance of a 2008 style crash happening from something like this relatively unlikely in the foreseeable future.”

Nov 13, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash.”

Sep 17, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think national home prices are going to crash.”

Aug 27, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the bad  news isn't that the market is going to crash the   bad news is that it isn't”

Jun 29, 2025

Not scored

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets.”

Jun 9, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct