Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Dec 27, 2023, at 13:40 in the video.

What was saidDec 27, 2023

@grahamstephan

“I highly doubt that we would see a crash like 2009 or 2008 since those were highly concentrated in the real estate markets but I also wouldn't be surprised if we just see a Slowdown and growth over these next 10 years”

Watch at 13:40How The Housing Crash Will Happen

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

310.67

Dec 27, 2023

Reading at close

323.22

Dec 26, 2024

Change

+12.55

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 310.7 in December 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.8%, in December 2024. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	310.67	310.45Jan 26, 2024	−0.21	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	310.67	316.65Mar 26, 2024	+5.98	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	310.67	325.23Jun 24, 2024	+14.57	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	310.67	323.22Dec 26, 2024	+12.55	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Dec 26, 2026	—	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Dec 25, 2028	—	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 310.7 in December 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and January 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.1%, in January 2024. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 310.7 in December 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.1%, in January 2024. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 310.7 in December 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.1%, in January 2024. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 26, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 25, 2028.

What was said around it

the exception of 1929 and the 2008 real estate crash overall the trend has been consistently upwards now that's not to say that prices will never fall because certainly there's going to be times where the market slows down and prices drop espe esally since the real estate market is highly localized but overall it is important to instead buy a house that you could afford with a fixed rate term preferably for 30 years to lock yourself in and then hold on to it for as long as possible now I highly doubt that we would see a crash like 2009 or 2008 since those were highly concentrated in the real estate markets but I also wouldn't be surprised if we just see a Slowdown and growth over these next 10 years even though increasing home prices are certainly worrying people as long as you buy something that you could afford with the ention of holding on to it for at least 8 to 10 years any short-term fluctuation in price shouldn't make much of a difference but you know what would make a difference if you hit the like button and subscribed if you haven't done that already so with that said you guys thank you so much for watching I really appreciate it and don't forget that you could also get two

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