Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Mar 19, 2021, at 12:37 in the video.

What was saidMar 19, 2021

@grahamstephan

“I highly doubt we would see a crash as severe as 1929 or 2008, which are both events that were highly concentrated and directly hit the real estate market.”

Watch at 12:37How The Housing Crash Will Happen

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

243.66

Mar 19, 2021

Reading at close

294.5

Mar 19, 2022

Change

+50.84

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2022, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	243.66	249.04Apr 18, 2021	+5.38	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	243.66	260.87Jun 17, 2021	+17.21	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	243.66	271.18Sep 15, 2021	+27.53	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	243.66	294.5Mar 19, 2022	+50.84	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	243.66	316.65Mar 18, 2024	+72.99	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	243.66	329.94Mar 18, 2026	+86.28	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and April 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

What was said around it

and appreciate the resiliency of the real estate market throughout history in terms of being a fairly stable store of value. Now, that's not to say that prices will not go down because certainly there will be times where everything slows down and values drop. But instead, it's a lot more important to make sure that you buy a home that you could afford, that you lock in an interest rate for as long as you can. You ideally get that mortgage for 30 years and then from there, you just hang on to it for as long as you can. I highly doubt we would see a crash as severe as 1929 or 2008, which are both events that were highly concentrated and directly hit the real estate market. And really instead, I wouldn't be surprised if we just saw a gradual slow down in prices over time. Even though increasing home prices are beginning to worry people, as long as you buy a home that you could afford, with the intention of holding it 8 to 10 years, you should be fine and that should be long enough to ride through any short-term fluctuations in price. And really most importantly from all of this, the best thing that you could do is make sure to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. So with that

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