Andrei Jikh: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Oct 9, 2023, at 7:32 in the video.

What was saidOct 9, 2023

@andreijikh

“But I wouldn't expect a crash like some people predict because there's a lot of people waiting on the sidelines to buy a a”

Watch at 7:32Why This Might Be The Best (Or Worst) Time to Buy a House!

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

312.95

Oct 9, 2023

Reading at close

324.22

Oct 8, 2024

Change

+11.27

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 313.0 in October 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and October 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.8%, in January 2024. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	312.95	312.15Nov 8, 2023	−0.81	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	312.95	310.45Jan 7, 2024	−2.5	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	312.95	320.42Apr 6, 2024	+7.47	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	312.95	324.22Oct 8, 2024	+11.27	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Oct 8, 2026	—	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Oct 7, 2028	—	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 313.0 in October 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and November 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.3%, in November 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 313.0 in October 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and January 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.8%, in January 2024. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 313.0 in October 2023, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and April 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.8%, in January 2024. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 8, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 7, 2028.

What was said around it

wait? Here's a couple reasons why you might want to wait to buy a house. This year, exactly 36.3% of homes sold over list price. Now, that's a lot considering how high interest rates still are. But eventually, we will go back to the historical average of inventory levels and interest rates will also eventually come down. And according to the Fed's latest prediction and everything they've leaked to us so far, the rates should be coming down sometime in 2024. And that means more people will want to sell and therefore higher inventory. But I wouldn't expect a crash like some people predict because there's a lot of people waiting on the sidelines to buy a a Now, reason number two to wait is if you believe in following the money when people with a multi-million dollar net worth were asked about what they thought about real estate, they said, "Quote, they're still holding back. They still have concerns around prices of homes, interest rates, inflation, low inventory, and market performance. So, even though they have the means to do so, wealthier people are waiting on the sidelines because they're concerned that high inflation could eat away at people's ability to borrow money, which therefore

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