Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Nov 13, 2025, at 13:37 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“That is why the chance of a 2008 style crash happening from something like this relatively unlikely in the foreseeable future.”
Watch at 13:37WTF Is Happening To The Housing Market?!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Correct so far · 180 days

Reading when said

328.15

Nov 13, 2025

Reading at close

335.1

May 12, 2026

Change

+6.95

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.1 in November 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and May 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.5%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct328.15327.45Dec 13, 2025−0.69—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct328.15327.31Feb 11, 2026−0.84—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct328.15335.1May 12, 2026+6.95—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Pending——Nov 13, 2026——
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Nov 12, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Nov 12, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.1 in November 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.2%, in December 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.1 in November 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and February 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.5%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.1 in November 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and May 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.5%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 13, 2026.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 12, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 12, 2030.

What was said around it

caused by record low mortgage rates that caused people to take on a lot of debt because it was very cheap to finance. And that debt isn't going away anytime soon because it's fixed until the property is completely paid off. Separate from that, these days buyers still have to have a certain amount down. They still have to meet certain income criteria. They still have to verify their employment. And for a lack of a better word, we aren't getting people with no money down buying properties that shouldn't be qualified in the first place. That is why the chance of a 2008 style crash happening from something like this relatively unlikely in the foreseeable future. That's why I think it's obvious the current administration wants to do something to help fix the affordability crisis. And as much as I am in favor of being able to move your mortgage from one house to another, at the end of the day, the only thing that's going to make a big difference is building more. Housing is simply supply versus demand. And when supply is restricted because of zoning requirements and high building costs, of course, housing prices are going to go up. Now, maybe AI could eventually create a perfect 3D house. And

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“but it is to say that you shouldn't be waiting for a 30% crash that'll probably never happen.”

Jul 22, 2026 · after 30 days

Correct so far · 30 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think we're headed for a housing crash because there are too many sellers with too much equity for prices to meaningfully fall.”

Mar 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash.”

Sep 17, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think national home prices are going to crash.”

Aug 27, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the bad  news isn't that the market is going to crash the   bad news is that it isn't”

Jun 29, 2025

Not scored

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets.”

Jun 9, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct