Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Nov 2, 2017, at 7:02 in the video.

What was saidNov 2, 2017

@grahamstephan

“I don't see there being any sort of devastating real estate crash like everyone is talking about so many people are talking about there being another bubble that real estate is just grossly overpriced”

Watch at 7:02To everyone wondering “When the Real Estate market will crash??” - my prediction

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

195.94

Nov 2, 2017

Reading at close

205.85

Nov 2, 2018

Change

+9.91

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 195.9 in November 2017, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and November 2018, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.1%, in November 2018. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	195.94	196.23Dec 2, 2017	+0.29	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	195.94	196.31Jan 31, 2018	+0.37	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	195.94	202.95May 1, 2018	+7.01	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	195.94	205.85Nov 2, 2018	+9.91	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Correct	195.94	232.38Nov 1, 2020	+36.44	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Correct	195.94	297.29Nov 1, 2022	+101.35	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 195.9 in November 2017, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2017, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 195.9 in November 2017, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and January 2018, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 195.9 in November 2017, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and May 2018, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 195.9 in November 2017, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and November 2020, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.6%, in January 2019. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 195.9 in November 2017, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and November 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.5%, in November 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

What was said around it

Marvis is so expensive Santa Monica Venice I can't even afford to buy a place there what's next and I figured you know what West Adams is next West Adams is just east of Culver City just five minutes east all of the money from Culver City is gonna move further east that's right into buying and that is my bet for the next five years but let's talk about the real estate market and in general what's going to happen and what are we gonna generally see throughout the country for the next maybe five years I don't see there being any sort of devastating real estate crash like everyone is talking about so many people are talking about there being another bubble that real estate is just grossly overpriced but the thing that they forget to mention is that people are still buying at these prices and not only are they buying but they're putting a lot of money down the thing is this is that in the last 2006 bubble people were buying properties on stated income that they couldn't afford when they were banking on appreciation to make more money now that's not so the case now in order to buy a property you are screened religiously even from me to buy a property it took weeks of them poring over every single

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