Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Sep 4, 2020, at 11:35 in the video.

What was saidSep 4, 2020

Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“that's why i think this is unlikely to lead to any sort of catastrophic real estate collapse in the near future”

Watch at 11:35The Housing Crisis Just Got Worse

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

226.8

Sep 4, 2020

Reading at close

271.18

Sep 4, 2021

Change

+44.38

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 226.8 in September 2020, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	226.8	229.93Oct 4, 2020	+3.13	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	226.8	234.4Dec 3, 2020	+7.59	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	226.8	243.66Mar 3, 2021	+16.86	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	226.8	271.18Sep 4, 2021	+44.38	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	226.8	312.31Sep 4, 2023	+85.51	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	226.8	328.94Sep 3, 2025	+102.14	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 226.8 in September 2020, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and October 2020, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 226.8 in September 2020, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2020, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 226.8 in September 2020, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 226.8 in September 2020, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 226.8 in September 2020, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

What was said around it

the house get the proceeds and then use that to pay off the loan that they have now if we want to look at this in terms of real numbers we could see that there are 128 million households in the united states and 60 percent of those have mortgages that gives us 76.8 million mortgages 6.2 percent of those are underwater and that gives us 4.7 million homes at risk of foreclosure or about right now three percent of the entire market now this is not necessarily good news but it's still way better than a lot of headlines will lead you to believe that's why i think this is unlikely to lead to any sort of catastrophic real estate collapse in the near future but it does mean that some people both landlords and tenants will be hit very hard and here's what at least you could do about it now as a tenant understand that you still owe the full amount to back rent when the eviction freezes over and that the landlord may pursue that in court knowing this it's better now to try to structure some sort of payment plan ahead of time to try to avoid this from happening and certainly not all but many landlords are just like you without a source of income with overhead expenses they have to pay and they also

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