Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Jul 29, 2022, at 10:51 in the video.

What was saidJul 29, 2022

@grahamstephan

“there is nothing that points to a severe or imminent real estate crash with the information that we currently have available.”

Watch at 10:51My Response To Dave Ramsey

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

307.45

Jul 29, 2022

Reading at close

310.16

Jul 29, 2023

Change

+2.71

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.8%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	307.45	303.76Aug 28, 2022	−3.69	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	307.45	298.99Oct 27, 2022	−8.46	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	307.45	292.71Jan 25, 2023	−14.74	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	307.45	310.16Jul 29, 2023	+2.71	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Correct	307.45	331.13Jul 28, 2025	+23.68	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Jul 28, 2027	—	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.2%, in August 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and October 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.8%, in October 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and January 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.8%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.8%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 28, 2027.

What was said around it

real return, but with leverage and locked in mortgages below the inflation rate, homeowners real net worth is likely to continue to climb. All of that is to say that Dave Ramsey has a point. Even though yes, real wages are down, the share of millennials who enter the real estate market continues to grow. And with rents having increased nearly 17% year-over-year, that will put more pressure on the housing market during a time where inventory is substantially lower than it once was. So based on all the information I could possibly find, there is nothing that points to a severe or imminent real estate crash with the information that we currently have available. To me, it's apparent that so many people used real estate as a way to leverage their money with low fixed rate mortgages. And that continues to be the case. Even right now, real rates are still negative. So once you account for inflation, a 5 1/2% mortgage makes you more money than you spend, which of course keeps pushing prices higher. However, the important distinction here is that real estate is very much location-based and other factors like local market conditions, demand, inventory, tax deductions, population changes, new construction,

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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