Graham Stephan: Housing crash will happen

Said on Mar 19, 2021, at 0:50 in the video.

What was saidMar 19, 2021

Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“at some point in the future, there's going to be another real estate crash.”

Watch at 0:50How The Housing Crash Will Happen

PredictionHousing crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Incorrect

Reading when said

243.66

Mar 19, 2021

Reading at close

294.5

Mar 19, 2022

Change

+50.84

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2022, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a housing crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Incorrect	243.66	249.04Apr 18, 2021	+5.38	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Incorrect	243.66	260.87Jun 17, 2021	+17.21	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Incorrect	243.66	271.18Sep 15, 2021	+27.53	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Incorrect	243.66	294.5Mar 19, 2022	+50.84	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	243.66	316.65Mar 18, 2024	+72.99	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	243.66	329.94Mar 18, 2026	+86.28	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and April 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2021, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 243.7 in March 2021, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a housing crash would come.

What was said around it

nearly the entire country. Housing inventory has hit an all-time record low, and buyers are left paying significantly over asking just for a chance to get the home they want. However, it's kind because during the same time as all of that, 2.6 million homeowners are still in forbearance, up to 20 million tenants are still behind in their rent, and the biggest wild card from all of this is that interest rates are now beginning to go up. Now, here's the thing. Throughout the entire history, there's always been a boom and bust cycle of the real estate market, and at some point in the future, there's going to be another real estate crash. Now, even though we don't know exactly when and what will cause it, there are some lessons that we could use from previous real estate downturns that anyone can apply today. So, let's talk about exactly what's going on right now, the chance of another crash happening sometime soon, how bad it would be if it were to happen, and then precisely what you could do about it to make sure you don't lose money, and instead, to make sure you make money. Cuz that's what this channel is all about, as with getting your two free stocks down below in the description. But,

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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