Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Sep 14, 2022, at 8:24 in the video.

What was saidSep 14, 2022

Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“even though that sounds severe, it's probably not going to lead to an all-out crash.”

Watch at 8:24It Started: The Worst Housing Crash In 40 Years

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

300.41

Sep 14, 2022

Reading at close

312.31

Sep 14, 2023

Change

+11.9

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 300.4 in September 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.6%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	300.41	298.99Oct 14, 2022	−1.42	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	300.41	294.68Dec 13, 2022	−5.73	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	300.41	297.08Mar 13, 2023	−3.33	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	300.41	312.31Sep 14, 2023	+11.9	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Correct	300.41	328.94Sep 13, 2025	+28.53	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Sep 13, 2027	—	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 300.4 in September 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and October 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.5%, in October 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 300.4 in September 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.9%, in December 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 300.4 in September 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.6%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 300.4 in September 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.6%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 13, 2027.

What was said around it

homeowners the option to eventually wait for prices to recover, and I can absolutely see the same thing beginning to happen today. The second, as we approach the end of summer, housing demand typically declines, and that could be even more pronounced throughout the rest of 2022. A Redfin chief economist even went so far to explain that, thanks largely to mortgage rates near or even above 6%, potential home buyers and sellers are focusing on the back-to-school season and enjoying the last days of summer rather than getting into an uncertain market. Now, three, even though that sounds severe, it's probably not going to lead to an all-out crash. For example, Moody's Analytics believes that most likely housing prices will shift anywhere between 0 and -5% year-over-year to as much as -10% if we enter a severe recession. This worst-case scenario still pales in comparison to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis where housing prices fell 33% from the peak over a period of 3 and a half years. Now four, because of that, there are some steps that you could take to get ahead if you're in the market to buy a home. One, shop around your mortgage rate. Even though rates have gone up significantly, it doesn't mean

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