Coin Bureau: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Jun 12, 2022, at 15:18 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“so it appears that we may indeed escape a great housing crash in the u.s”
Watch at 15:18Housing Bubble COLLAPSING?! What You NEED To Watch!!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Reading when said

308.18

Jun 12, 2022

Reading at close

308.25

Jun 12, 2023

Change

+0.07

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Partly correct

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct308.18307.45Jul 12, 2022−0.74—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct308.18300.41Sep 10, 2022−7.77—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct308.18294.68Dec 9, 2022−13.5—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct308.18308.25Jun 12, 2023+0.07—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Partly correct308.18331.51Jun 11, 2025+23.33—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Jun 11, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.2%, in July 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.5%, in September 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.4%, in December 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 11, 2027.

What was said around it

government instituted a number of guard rails that would help prevent these types of unsustainable loan issuances going forward these have by and large kept the mortgage issuers in check finally the demand drivers in this recent housing boom albeit frenzied were powered by underlying fundamentals people were looking for houses to live in during 2008 people were often merely buying up house upon house because they all thought that house prices would only ever go up no one had ever experienced a broad crash in u.s housing so they assumed the party would never end so it appears that we may indeed escape a great housing crash in the u.s but that doesn't mean that there aren't some seriously hot and dangerously tilted housing markets out there so let's take a look at them shall we what i was relatively surprised to learn is that in the context of global housing bubbles u.s cities very rarely feature as the most overvalued last year analysts at bloomberg looked at countries with overvalued housing markets and tried to devise what they called a bubble rank in that list the us came seventh behind countries like denmark the uk norway sweden canada and new zealand who would have thought that new

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