Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Apr 11, 2018, at 13:16 in the video.

What was saidApr 11, 2018

Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I don't see any indication that real estate is a bubble or that real estate is gonna come crashing down anytime soon”

Watch at 13:16Are we in a REAL ESTATE BUBBLE?!

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

200.86

Apr 11, 2018

Reading at close

207.97

Apr 11, 2019

Change

+7.11

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 200.9 in April 2018, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and April 2019, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.6%, in January 2019. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	200.86	202.95May 11, 2018	+2.09	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	200.86	205.35Jul 10, 2018	+4.49	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	200.86	206.03Oct 8, 2018	+5.17	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	200.86	207.97Apr 11, 2019	+7.11	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Correct	200.86	249.04Apr 10, 2021	+48.18	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	200.86	301.05Apr 10, 2023	+100.19	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 200.9 in April 2018, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and May 2018, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 200.9 in April 2018, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2018, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 200.9 in April 2018, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and October 2018, it never fell below a running peak. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 200.9 in April 2018, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and April 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.6%, in January 2019. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 200.9 in April 2018, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and April 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

What was said around it

shortage of inventory there's just simply not enough to go around current builders can't keep up with demand and many larger cities have really strict code enforcement that limit the amount that you can build on therefore just significantly limiting the current supply and well many other areas are just starting to develop more housing it's still not enough and we are a long ways away from there being an oversupply of property this in and of itself has the ability to keep real estate prices high just from limited supply so for the way I see it I don't see any indication that real estate is a bubble or that real estate is gonna come crashing down anytime soon now while I believe there are some things that maybe could be done a little bit better I do believe that always anytime in history there are things that could be done a little bit differently and there's never gonna be a point in time where things are 100% perfect they're always gonna be some concerns for some issues that could be rising up but again for the way I see it I don't see a smoking gun that we can point at and be like you know what this is 100% a bubble this is going to crash because frankly I don't see it so as always you guys

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