Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Jun 9, 2025, at 12:50 in the video.

What was saidJun 9, 2025

Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets.”

Watch at 12:50The Housing Market Just Flipped – Sellers Panicking!

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

331.51

Jun 9, 2025

Reading at close

336.66

Jun 9, 2026

Change

+5.15

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 331.5 in June 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.5%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	331.51	331.13Jul 9, 2025	−0.39	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	331.51	328.94Sep 7, 2025	−2.58	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	331.51	327.45Dec 6, 2025	−4.06	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Correct	331.51	336.66Jun 9, 2026	+5.15	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Jun 8, 2028	—	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—Jun 8, 2030	—	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 331.5 in June 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.1%, in July 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 331.5 in June 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.8%, in September 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 331.5 in June 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.2%, in December 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 8, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 8, 2030.

What was said around it

to be racing higher. Like, remember the days where you had to pay cash, over asking, wave contingencies, and name your firstborn child after the seller? Well, that's not really happening anymore, but home affordability is still an issue. And if you buy something, you are still paying a historically high price, all things considered. Now, for everybody else who's simply watching home prices out of curiosity, honestly, you're not going to feel much of an impact. And any headline decreases in price, you're going to be moderate at best. So, no, we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets. Instead, we might see a more flatlining of prices or really moderate gains, if anything. That's why I believe if you need to buy a home, buy something that fits your budget on a fixed rate loan that you could comfortably afford on a home that you intend on keeping for at least 7 to 10 years, assuming you can't rent an identical home for significantly cheaper. Now, in terms of what I'm doing, look, I've been involved in real estate full-time since 2008, and I look every single day for good opportunities, but the only no-brainer option that

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all