Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Jul 8, 2022, at 10:52 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I honestly don't see anything that would point to a massive housing collapse”
Watch at 10:52The Housing Market Bubble Just Popped
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

307.45

Jul 8, 2022

Reading at close

310.16

Jul 8, 2023

Change

+2.71

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.8%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct307.45303.76Aug 7, 2022−3.69—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct307.45298.99Oct 6, 2022−8.46—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct307.45292.71Jan 4, 2023−14.74—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct307.45310.16Jul 8, 2023+2.71—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct307.45331.13Jul 7, 2025+23.68—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Jul 7, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.2%, in August 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and October 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.8%, in October 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and January 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.8%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.8%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 307.4 in July 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.8%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 7, 2027.

What was said around it

interested in partnering with me on potential opportunities I'll link to more information Down Below in the description of course sure I am seeing some areas experience a decline in rental rates while people move out of state or migrate to different areas but overall rents are probably going to remain the same if not see an increase right alongside with the average pace of inflation in terms of housing prices though just like with rents I am sure there are going to be parts of the country that see a slight decline as people move around different areas but I honestly don't see anything that would point to a massive housing collapse the market is still relatively strong unemployment is low fixed rate mortgages ensures that anyone who's already bought a home is not going to have their price increase out of nowhere and there isn't much happening right now that would force a sale below Market rates today we could probably see some softening with a few areas declining 5 to 15% but since real estate is highly location dependent we could also see other areas continuing to go up in price so it's hard to say I know that's not the best news but from my own perspective now could be a great time

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