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Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Sep 17, 2025, at 9:12 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash.”
Watch at 9:12BREAKING: Federal Reserve JUST SLASHED RATES – Massive Pivot Ahead!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Correct so far · 180 days

Reading when said

328.94

Sep 17, 2025

Reading at close

329.94

Mar 16, 2026

Change

+1

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.9 in September 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.7%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct328.94328.44Oct 17, 2025−0.5—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct328.94327.45Dec 16, 2025−1.48—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct328.94329.94Mar 16, 2026+1—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Pending——Sep 17, 2026——
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Sep 16, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Sep 16, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.9 in September 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and October 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.2%, in October 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.9 in September 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and December 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.5%, in December 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 328.9 in September 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and March 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.7%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 17, 2026.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 16, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 16, 2030.

What was said around it

starts buying the 10-year Treasury yield in an effort to pump more money into the market and drive those yields down, which at this point, nothing would surprise me anymore. Plus, if they actually did do that, it's probably a sign that investors have lost faith in the US economy. and uh it's a bad sign. Anyway, barring the Federal Reserve purposely stepping in to bail out the housing market, realistically, housing prices will continue to soften as more inventory gets listed on the market and prices might begin to decline relative to inflation. On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash. But a softening is definitely something that's in the cards. Although, a bigger problem right now might actually be the stock market. Unfortunately, we have a few variables all affecting stock market performance with the first being treasuries. Like I mentioned earlier, for the foreseeable future, the long-term Treasury yield is going to act as the barometer for our entire economy because this is seen as the risk-free rate of return that every other investment is compared to. Like, to put this into context, if the 30-year Treasury offered

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“but it is to say that you shouldn't be waiting for a 30% crash that'll probably never happen.”

Jul 22, 2026 · after 30 days

Correct so far · 30 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think we're headed for a housing crash because there are too many sellers with too much equity for prices to meaningfully fall.”

Mar 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“That is why the chance of a 2008 style crash happening from something like this relatively unlikely in the foreseeable future.”

Nov 13, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think national home prices are going to crash.”

Aug 27, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the bad  news isn't that the market is going to crash the   bad news is that it isn't”

Jun 29, 2025

Not scored

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets.”

Jun 9, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct