Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Jun 1, 2022, at 8:08 in the video.

What was saidJun 1, 2022

@grahamstephan

“we could see some softening but the chance of a crash seems pretty unlikely with the information that we have available to us today”

Watch at 8:08It’s Over: Why The Middle Class Is Financially Screwed

PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Partly correct

Reading when said

308.18

Jun 1, 2022

Reading at close

308.25

Jun 1, 2023

Change

+0.07

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and June 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	308.18	307.45Jul 1, 2022	−0.74	—
90 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	308.18	303.76Aug 30, 2022	−4.43	—
180 daysR-CRASH v4	Correct	308.18	297.29Nov 28, 2022	−10.89	—
1 yearR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	308.18	308.25Jun 1, 2023	+0.07	—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4	Partly correct	308.18	331.11May 31, 2025	+22.92	—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4	Pending	—	—May 31, 2027	—	—

Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and July 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.2%, in July 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.4%, in August 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and November 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.5%, in November 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 308.2 in June 2022, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and May 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.0%, in January 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 31, 2027.

What was said around it

have plunged to the lowest level in a decade mainly because higher interest rates don't just affect buyers but they also affect sellers after all if they sell they have to move somewhere else too and it's quoted that the vast majority of homeowners are enjoying huge wealth gains and are not under Financial stress as a result of having locked into historically low interest rates or in other words sellers don't want to give up a fixed rate 2.8 mortgage when a new one would cost them five percent so they're staying put that means yes we could see some softening but the chance of a crash seems pretty unlikely with the information that we have available to us today now cryptocurrency on the other hand did see the largest sell-off down about 40 percent year-to-date but JPMorgan believes that this could be a great opportunity for investors and that they say it's actually undervalued by 28 percent although take that with a grain of salt because a Guggenheim analyst also believes that the bottom could be eight thousand so basically everyone is just throwing out a random guess and eventually one of them is going to be right but the one thing that we don't have to guess on is that market volatility

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