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Graham Stephan: Housing crash will not happen

Said on Aug 27, 2025, at 18:44 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I don't think national home prices are going to crash.”
Watch at 18:44WTF Just Happened To The Housing Market?!
PredictionHousing crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

330.02

Aug 27, 2025

Reading at close

336.74

Aug 27, 2026

Change

+6.72

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 330.0 in August 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.0%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct330.02328.94Sep 26, 2025−1.08—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct330.02328.15Nov 25, 2025−1.87—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct330.02327.31Feb 23, 2026−2.71—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct330.02336.74Aug 27, 2026+6.72—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 26, 2028——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 26, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 330.0 in August 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and September 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.3%, in September 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 90 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 330.0 in August 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and November 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.6%, in November 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 180 days

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 330.0 in August 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and February 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.0%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 1 year

The house price index (CSUSHPINSA, first releases) stood at 330.0 in August 2025, the figure at the start of the window. Between then and August 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.0%, in January 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a housing crash, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no housing crash would come.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 26, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 26, 2030.

What was said around it

it still makes sense either way, no matter what happens. But if that's not you and you only plan to live in the house for the next 5 to 7 years, maybe even 10 years, then I'd strongly recommend to compare the cost to that of renting to see which makes sense for your own specific situation. It used to be years ago where if you bought a house and you overpaid for it and you had to move, worst case, you'd usually be able to rent it out and break even on your monthly costs. That's just not possible anymore. And today, you just be stuck with it. Anyway, that's my rent. No, I don't think national home prices are going to crash. But unless mortgage rates drastically decline, the math today heavily favors renting to a point that's impossible to ignore. On top of that, even if the Fed does lower interest rates to 2% next year, mortgages could still remain above 6% because they're tied more to long-term bonds and investor expectations about inflation, not just the Fed's short-term interest rates. The reality is, if people think inflation is going to be higher or people lose confidence in the US dollar, lenders will have to keep their rates higher. And that's why mortgages don't always fall when

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“but it is to say that you shouldn't be waiting for a 30% crash that'll probably never happen.”

Jul 22, 2026 · after 30 days

Correct so far · 30 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“I don't think we're headed for a housing crash because there are too many sellers with too much equity for prices to meaningfully fall.”

Mar 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“That is why the chance of a 2008 style crash happening from something like this relatively unlikely in the foreseeable future.”

Nov 13, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“On top of that, national home prices have remained fairly stable, so it's unlikely we're going to see a crash.”

Sep 17, 2025 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days

Coin Bureaua call under review

“the bad  news isn't that the market is going to crash the   bad news is that it isn't”

Jun 29, 2025

Not scored

Graham StephanHousing crashwill not happen

“we're not going to be seeing a 10 to 20% real estate collapse anytime soon outside of a few localized markets.”

Jun 9, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct