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Market correction

S&P 500 (SPY)Latest $754.35 (Nov 2026)

As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 35 calls about a market correction that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the S&P 500 (SPY). At one year: 7 correct, 1 incorrect, 4 partly correct, 1 still open. The other 22 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.

Own predictions

35

26 said it would happen · 1 said it would not

Correct / incorrect after 1 year

7 Correct 1 Incorrect

plus 4 partly correct and 0 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.

Still open

1

Windows not yet closed

Market correction and the predictions about it

S&P 500 (SPY)Recession (NBER)Said it would happenSaid it would not happenOther calls with a direction
$300$400$500$600$700$800$900202120222023202420252026
$200$400$600$800$1,0002021202320252026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,000201620182020202220242026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,0002016202020232026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,000201520172019202220242026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,0002015201820222026

Market crash calls are measured on the S&P 500 (SPY): a crash is a fall of 20% from the start of the window, a correction 10%, a bubble bursting 30%.

Latest predictions about Market correction

37 predictions in all, newest first: 35 own, 2 relaying someone else's forecast (not scored).

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”
Watch at 12:24It Started: America’s Bond Market Is Secretly Collapsing
PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 30 days
Incorrect so far · 30 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$773.17

Sep 3, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−0.2%

SPY closed at $773.17 on Sep 3, 2026. Between then and Oct 2, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.5%, on Sep 16, 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Pending

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”
Watch at 12:14Japan’s Currency Crisis Is Now America’s Problem
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”
Watch at 12:14Japan’s Currency Crisis Is Now America’s Problem
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”
Watch at 13:23Stock Market Just Hit ANOTHER Record - WTF Just Happened?!
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”
Watch at 17:20The Debasement Trade: The Death Of Fiat Currency?
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”
Watch at 11:48Was $126k The TOP For Bitcoin?! Here's What Comes Next!
PredictionMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“this is where the NASDAQ might soon be approaching according to the data this typically hits every 7 to 10 years and when it hits unfortunately it hits kind of hard during a bare Market the stock market drops on average 33.2% and it falls over a period of 363 days”
Watch at 8:35It’s Over: Trump ‘Purposely’ Crashing The Stock Market
PredictionMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the market can't fall 20 to 30% or rally 50% making everybody rich”
Watch at 13:00An Urgent Warning For All Investors: Tariffs, Bitcoin, & Mass Selling
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Earlier calls

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“the initial rise in interest rates could cause a significant downturn that would catch many unaware”

Jan 8, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“this suggests that ton could see a fairly substantial correction in the short term”

Jul 30, 2024 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“this means that BTC could see another few weeks of choppy price action before experiencing a severe correction in late May or early June”

Apr 29, 2024 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“we could also see a significant correction after the Haring as speculators take profits”

Apr 8, 2024 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“this all paints a bleak picture for e and the rest of the crypto Market in the coming months something that coincidentally is consistent with the Q2 correction we discussed in a recent video”

Mar 28, 2024 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“in the medium- term the lack of sustainable demand drivers could result in a large correction”

Mar 27, 2024 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket correctionwill happen

“eventually that rocket will run out of steam and come back down to earth”

Mar 10, 2024 · after 1 year

Partly correct+11.0%

Coin BureauMarket correctionwill happen

“it would appear that we're getting some strong signals that the markets could cool off and retrace at any moment”

Mar 10, 2024 · after 1 year

Partly correct+11.0%

Coin BureauMarket correctionwill happen

“it's also only a matter of time before we see a correction that we'll see some investors get burned”

Mar 10, 2024 · after 1 year

Partly correct+11.0%

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“I tend to think the bigger concern here is irrational investors panicking over nothing and causing temporary sellout”

Aug 23, 2023

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“I think a lot of the recent rally in the equity markets it may be short-lived”

Feb 15, 2023

Not scored

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“the Federal Reserve is not looking like they'll be pivoting away from fighting inflation anytime soon and as a result they've signaled the brand new change of policies that are about to affect literally everything from stocks housing prices treasury yields and even the amount that you get paid in the savings account which basically means another Market reversal is likely coming soon”

Dec 14, 2022 · after 1 year

Partly correct+23.1%

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“these facts suggest that a correction is imminent and it will likely coincide with the FED raising interest rates later this week”

Oct 31, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“something tells me that Global crypto regulations won't come until after the next leg lower in the crypto Market which could have occurred by the time you see this video”

Oct 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“so what the data suggests is that after the stock market drops 20 or more typically 12 months later of which so far we've seen a month of the stock market tends to recover”

Jul 18, 2022

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“so are we likely to see a replay of the 2008 housing crash well not quite while the u.s property market is indeed due a correction”

Jun 12, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhMarket correctionwill happen

“so what we could actually be seeing is not a recovery but a false rally and these happen after the market again Falls 20 or more it comes back up it lasts for around two months on average and then the market falls again”

Jun 1, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+2.8%

Andrei JikhMarket correctionwill happen

“we will reach a true market bottom somewhere around february 27 2023 or around the start ish of q2 of 2023”

May 20, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+7.3%

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“even though I wouldn't be surprised if housing prices Begin to Fall or the stock market continues to sell off I'm not changing my plan at all”

May 4, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct−0.4%

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Market correction will fall

“as Morgan Stanley warns, the bare market rally is setting the stage for another correction. As their analyst explains, they're bracing for an S&P 500 decline of at least 13% between now and September.”

Apr 8, 2022

Relayed

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“plus this year-long nft mania phase cannot possibly last forever and we're most definitely due a correction in both the crypto and nft markets at some point in”

Jan 29, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonMarket correctionwill happen (a fall of at least 10%)

“the stock market could go down another 10 percent that's something that you have to be mentally prepared for over time”

Dec 20, 2021 · after 1 year

Correct−16.5%

Showing the newest 30 of 37.

See all 37 predictions

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Questions people ask

What have finance YouTubers predicted about a market correction?

As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 35 calls about a market correction that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the S&P 500 (SPY). At one year: 7 correct, 1 incorrect, 4 partly correct, 1 still open. The other 22 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.

What is a stock market correction?

The usual definition is a fall of at least 10% from a recent high, and Callsight uses the same line. A call that a correction is coming is checked on the S&P 500: it is Correct when the index falls that far from its highest close after the call, inside the window, or by the bigger fall the speaker named. Half that fall is Partly correct.

What is the difference between a market correction and a crash?

They differ in how far the market falls. Callsight judges a correction call at a fall of 10% and a crash call at 20%, both measured on the S&P 500 from its highest close after the call. A fall of 15% makes a correction call Correct and a crash call Partly correct.

How is a call about a market correction checked?

Against the S&P 500 (SPY), using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.

Is this investment advice?

No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.

Every count on this page includes repeats: a call made again in a later video counts again, so the counts can differ from a channel's record, which counts each distinct call once.