Graham Stephan: a call with no clear direction

The window it was checked over

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

alone are projected to hit a trillion this year, which is more, by the way, than we spend on Medicare, national defense, and it's the second largest line item on the entire budget. On top of that, all of the debt that was locked in between 0ero to 1% five years ago is now coming up for renewal in 2026 when interest rates are substantially higher, which means the government is probably going to have to print a lot more money. And finally, the loser number three is probably anyone who's looking for a job in the next few months. The reality is rising interest rates at the same time that the labor market is cooling usually results in hiring freezes. There's not usually mass layoffs, it's just nothing. This typically doesn't show up in headlines because there's no report to show that they just didn't hire anyone that month. But there are some winners with this with the first winner coming out as anyone sitting in cash. Right now, there are so many great high yield savings accounts that pay you a pretty significant amount of money compared with a few years ago. And that means anyone who has extra cash that's sitting there, you could be earning a lot more money than you did in the past. The

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