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How accurate are YouTubers' Bitcoin price predictions?
By Callsight · Published Oct 9, 2026 · Updated Oct 12, 2026
Figures as of Nov 4, 2026. They change as new windows settle.
As of Nov 4, 2026, at one year, each YouTube channel’s Bitcoin calls in Callsight’s record were Correct less often than their base rate: Coin Bureau 48.3% of 29 (base rate 52.0%), Andrei Jikh 54.5% of 11 (60.0%) and Graham Stephan 28.6% of 7 (53.1%). Each rate is the hit rate on decided calls that have a base rate, and a call repeated inside one 90-day block counts once.
Are YouTubers’ Bitcoin price predictions accurate?
Three channels that Callsight tracks have made calls on Bitcoin’s price in their own words. The record counts 190 from Coin Bureau, 22 from Andrei Jikh and 11 from Graham Stephan, 223 in all. Left out of every figure here are 61 forecasts read out from someone else, which are listed with their source, and 81 of the channels’ own remarks that the record does not score, such as a position already held or a call whose date or direction is in doubt. The Bitcoin page lists them all, and a card that is left out says why.
The table reads each call at one year, the window the method fixes in advance as the headline for every call. Of the 223 calls, 171 have a one-year result of Correct, Incorrect, Partly correct or Within band. As in the ranking, calls on Bitcoin in the same direction inside one 90-day block count as one, so the table’s counts are smaller than these.
| Channel | Correct | Incorrect | Pending | Hit rate | Base rate | Above the base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin Bureau | 14 | 15 | 4 | 48.3% (29) | 52.0% on 29 of 29 | −3.7 pts |
| Andrei Jikh | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% (11) | 60.0% on 11 of 11 | −5.5 pts |
| Graham Stephan | 2 | 6 | 0 | 25.0% (8) | 53.1% on 7 of 8 | −24.5 pts |
Bitcoin ended higher in 101 of the 171 one-year windows these calls were checked over, more than half of them. The base rate allows for the market’s own drift. For each call, it is the share of past spans of the same length, in Bitcoin’s own price history up to the day of the call, in which the price moved the way the call said. When most of those spans were rising ones, a call for a rise starts with a high base rate and a call for a fall with a low one, so a hit rate says little until it is set beside the base rate of the same calls.
Whose Bitcoin predictions have been the most accurate?
So far, no channel’s Bitcoin calls were Correct more often than the base rate of the same calls. At one year, each channel’s hit rate beside the base rate of the same calls:
- Coin Bureau: all 29 decided calls have a comparable base rate, and 48.3% of them were Correct against a base rate of 52.0%, a difference of −3.7 pts. On 29 calls, one call either way moves this rate by about 3.4 points.
- Andrei Jikh: all 11 decided calls have a comparable base rate, and 54.5% of them were Correct against a base rate of 60.0%, a difference of −5.5 pts. A sample of 11 decided calls is small, below the 20 a channel needs before the ranking places it, and one call either way moves this rate by about 9.1 points.
- Graham Stephan: on the 7 of 8 decided calls that have a comparable base rate, 28.6% were Correct against a base rate of 53.1%, a difference of −24.5 pts. A sample of 8 decided calls is small, below the 20 a channel needs before the ranking places it, and one call either way moves this rate by about 14.3 points.
This page sets the results side by side and ranks no channel. The site’s ranking of the channels’ one-year records places a channel only once it has 20 decided calls across all its subjects, Bitcoin among them. The comparison pages set two channels’ calls side by side: Andrei Jikh and Coin Bureau, Andrei Jikh and Graham Stephan, and Coin Bureau and Graham Stephan. Two of the channels have articles of their own: one on Andrei Jikh’s Bitcoin calls and one on Graham Stephan’s calls on housing, rates, stocks and Bitcoin.
What happened at 30 days, 90 days and 180 days?
Every call is also checked at shorter windows. The one-year result stays the headline, fixed in advance, so no verdict is picked afterwards from the window that reads best. The table counts each call at every window up to a year, repeats included, so its figures run larger than those above. It gives no rate, because this page sets the base rate for Bitcoin calls beside the one-year results only.
| Channel | Window | Correct | Incorrect | Pending | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin Bureau | 30 days | 74 | 97 | 0 | 19 |
| 90 days | 75 | 96 | 0 | 19 | |
| 180 days | 70 | 102 | 3 | 15 | |
| 1 year | 63 | 82 | 29 | 16 | |
| Andrei Jikh | 30 days | 7 | 10 | 0 | 5 |
| 90 days | 7 | 9 | 0 | 6 | |
| 180 days | 9 | 8 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 year | 6 | 10 | 1 | 5 | |
| Graham Stephan | 30 days | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 90 days | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | |
| 180 days | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 year | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
Who predicted Bitcoin’s price correctly?
Each of the three channels has Bitcoin calls that were Correct at one year and calls that were Incorrect. Counting every call with its repeats, the one-year results of the calls for a higher price are:
- Coin Bureau: 54 Correct, 47 Incorrect, 1 Partly correct, 25 still open and 2 that could not be checked.
- Andrei Jikh: 5 Correct and 8 Incorrect.
- Graham Stephan: 0 Correct and 6 Incorrect.
The calls for a lower price have their own section below. Another 20 counted calls name no direction for the price itself, such as a comparison with another asset. These are counts of calls with no base rate beside them, so no rate is given for them. Five of the calls follow, chosen by the rule at the end of this article. Each card links to the second the words were said and shows the result at every window up to a year.
“these ETFs will not only increase btc's price but also lower its volatility making it more currency like”Entry price (first close after the video)
$66,207
May 15, 2024
Price at close
$103,764
May 15, 2025
Return
+56.7%
S&P 500 +12.9%
BTC closed at $66,207 on May 15, 2024. On May 15, 2025 it closed at $103,764, a return of +56.7%. SPY returned +12.9% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Within band
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Correct
1 year
Correct
No deadline was stated, so the headline is the one-year window, where it is Correct. At 90 days it was Incorrect.
“for Bitcoin I think the next 12 months are going to be super interesting because Bitcoin tends to lag behind Gold's performance so first gold goes up and then Bitcoin goes up”Entry price (first close after the video)
$61,760
Sep 18, 2024
Price at close
$117,074
Sep 18, 2025
Return
+89.6%
S&P 500 +19.4%
BTC closed at $61,760 on Sep 18, 2024. On Sep 18, 2025 it closed at $117,074, a return of +89.6%. SPY returned +19.4% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Correct
The words speak of the next 12 months, the same length as the one-year window, where it is Correct.
“as such BTC's price is
set to keep on climbing from here”Entry price (first close after the video)
$110,274
Jun 10, 2025
Price at close
$61,511
Jun 10, 2026
Return
−44.2%
S&P 500 +21.7%
BTC closed at $110,274 on Jun 10, 2025. On Jun 10, 2026 it closed at $61,511, a return of −44.2%. SPY returned +21.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
No deadline was stated, so the headline is the one-year window, where it is Incorrect. At 90 days it was Correct.
“This also kind of sets up the president and his family to really benefit from owning hard assets, especially assets like Bitcoin, because hard assets will go up much more in the long term as a result of all of this.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$107,984
Jul 4, 2025
Price at close
$63,144
Jul 4, 2026
Return
−41.5%
S&P 500 +21.3%
BTC closed at $107,984 on Jul 4, 2025. On Jul 4, 2026 it closed at $63,144, a return of −41.5%. SPY returned +21.3% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
It is a long-term call with no date in it, so the headline is the one-year window, where it is Incorrect. That result covers the first year only. Its windows at 3 years and 5 years are still open, and its page will show them as they settle.
“longterm I am bullish for Bitcoin I do think the ETFs make it incredibly easy to buy or sell without worrying about self- custody and I have a feeling over time more people are going to begin diversifying into it causing the price to go higher”Entry price (first close after the video)
$101,329
Feb 3, 2025
Price at close
$75,770
Feb 3, 2026
Return
−25.2%
S&P 500 +16.7%
BTC closed at $101,329 on Feb 3, 2025. On Feb 3, 2026 it closed at $75,770, a return of −25.2%. SPY returned +16.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Correct
1 year
Incorrect
It is a long-term call with no date in it, so the headline is the one-year window, where it is Incorrect. That result covers the first year only. Its windows at 3 years and 5 years are still open, and its page will show them as they settle.
Who predicted Bitcoin would fall?
Callsight checks a Bitcoin call on the direction its words named, not on whether a crash came. It reads the call at the same fixed windows as every other call, from 30 days to 5 years, with one year as the headline. A call for a lower price is Correct at a window when Bitcoin closes it at least 0.5% below the entry price, or as far below as the words said, if they gave a size. A target below the price is Correct when the day’s low reaches it inside the window.
Counting every call with its repeats, the one-year results of the calls for a lower price are:
- Coin Bureau: 48 calls, 9 Correct, 35 Incorrect and 4 still open.
- Andrei Jikh: 4 calls, 1 Correct, 2 Incorrect and 1 still open.
- Graham Stephan: 3 calls, 2 Correct and 1 Incorrect.
These are counts of calls with no base rate beside them, so no rate is given for them.
Did their Bitcoin price targets come true?
A price target names a level. It is Correct when the day’s high reaches the level inside the window (the day’s low, for a target below the price), and Partly correct when the window’s last close had covered at least 50% of the way from the entry price to the level. The table counts every counted target at one year.
| Channel | Targets | Reached within a year | Not reached | Pending | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin Bureau | 34 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| Andrei Jikh | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Graham Stephan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Of Coin Bureau’s 21 targets for a rise, 10 were reached within a year and 3 are still open; of its 13 targets for a fall, 3 were reached within a year. A target can also be reached after its first year, and the windows at 3 years and 5 years on each call’s page show whether it was. The article on Andrei Jikh’s Bitcoin calls follows one of his targets through every window.
How accurate are their other crypto calls?
These channels call other coins as well. The table gives each channel’s record on all its crypto calls at one year, Bitcoin included, with the figures its own page shows. Correct and Incorrect count a call repeated inside one 90-day block once; Pending counts each call whose year is still open.
| Channel | Correct | Incorrect | Pending | Hit rate | Base rate | Above the base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin Bureau | 58 | 72 | 39 | 44.6% (130) | 53.0% on 118 of 130 | −8.9 pts |
| Andrei Jikh | 6 | 6 | 1 | 50.0% (12) | 59.7% on 12 of 12 | −9.7 pts |
| Graham Stephan | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% (10) | 50.0% on 8 of 10 | −12.5 pts |
How does Callsight check a Bitcoin prediction?
Each call is quoted word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said. Its entry price is the first daily close strictly after the video went public. It is then checked at six windows, from 30 days to 5 years; every window is shown, and the one-year window is the headline. A call that the price will rise or fall is Within band when the move is smaller than 0.5% either way, and a result Within band counts as neither Correct nor Incorrect. The rules are the same for every channel, and the methodology page gives them in full. If you think a call was misread, the corrections page says how to report it.
How these examples were chosen
The calls above were chosen on Oct 7, 2026 by one rule, applied to each channel: its most recent Bitcoin call in its own words with a one-year verdict of Correct, and its most recent with a verdict of Incorrect. A call was passed over if its reading is being checked again, if its quoted words leave out Bitcoin’s name or do not say which way its price will go, or if they set a deadline shorter than a year or speak of the short term. On that day Graham Stephan had no Correct call that met the rule. Every call is listed on each channel’s page and on the Bitcoin page.
Figures are computed by code from the same record as the rest of the site. This article was drafted with the help of AI tools and reviewed by a person before publication. It is not investment advice.