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Graham Stephan: Market correction will happen

Said on Sep 3, 2026, at 12:24 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”
Watch at 12:24It Started: America’s Bond Market Is Secretly Collapsing
PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 30 days
Incorrect so far · 30 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$773.17

Sep 3, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−0.2%

SPY closed at $773.17 on Sep 3, 2026. Between then and Oct 2, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.5%, on Sep 16, 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Pending

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$773.17Sep 3, 2026—Oct 2, 2026−0.2%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Pending——Dec 2, 2026——
180 daysR-CRASH v4Pending——Mar 2, 2027——
1 yearR-CRASH v4Pending——Sep 3, 2027——
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Aug 31, 2029——
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Sep 2, 2031——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $773.17 on Sep 3, 2026. Between then and Oct 2, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.5%, on Sep 16, 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 90 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 2, 2026.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 2, 2027.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 3, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 31, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 2, 2031.

What was said around it

might not be a surprise at this point, but I've been following Ryan Detrick on Twitter for well over a year now. And his data is the most assuring that I have ever seen. Like he's quick to point out that even in great stock market years where we see a 20% return, we still see significantly bad drops with some days down as much as 3 and 1/2%. Or even this, since 1950, the S&P 500 was higher 1 year after the August 31st close in 18 of 19 mid-term years with zero 20% plus drawdowns over the following year. All of that's to basically say that short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we continue inching higher, especially once elections are over. If the markets like what they see, I think it's smooth sailing and we'll see a bit of choppiness, but nothing crazy. Although keep in mind, really anything can happen and you just got to brace for the unexpected at this point. That's why going forward, here's what I'm doing. Here's a bit of a different answer for everyone. I'm going to throw you off here. My current allocation is right now about 55% stocks, 20% tax-free muni bonds, 10% in a

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”

May 4, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”

Nov 1, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”

Oct 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“this is where the NASDAQ might soon be approaching according to the data this typically hits every 7 to 10 years and when it hits unfortunately it hits kind of hard during a bare Market the stock market drops on average 33.2% and it falls over a period of 363 days”

Mar 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable