As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 12 calls about unemployment that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the US unemployment rate on FRED. At one year: 1 correct, 2 incorrect, 4 within band. The other 5 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Own predictions
12
7 up · 1 down
Correct / incorrect after 1 year
✓ 1 Correct/✗ 2 Incorrect
plus 0 partly correct and 4 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.
Still open
0
Windows not yet closed
Unemployment and the predictions about it
UNRATE · levelRecession (NBER)Called upCalled down
Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. Grey bands are recessions.
“Apparently, the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026. And then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline. Unemployment is going to rise above 10%.”
Watch at 0:04The AI Collapse Is MUCH Worse Than You Think
PredictionUnemploymentwill rise to 10%by Oct 31, 2026
“this means that unemployment could actually start falling again in the not to distant future”
Watch at 12:11New All Time Highs Coming SOON?? Fed Rate Cuts Explained!
PredictionUnemploymentwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect
Reading when said
4.1%
Sep 25, 2024
Reading at close
4.4%
Sep 25, 2025
Change
+0.30 pp
Unemployment stood at 4.10% at the start of the window and 4.40% at Sep 25, 2025, a change of +0.30 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.
“it looks like the decline in jobs is going to keep pushing unemployment higher and trigger a recession at least according to the S”
Watch at 15:37We’re In Recession?! Is The Next Economic Collapse Coming?
PredictionUnemploymentwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band
Reading when said
4.2%
Aug 11, 2024
Reading at close
4.3%
Aug 11, 2025
Change
+0.10 pp
Unemployment stood at 4.20% at the start of the window and 4.30% at Aug 11, 2025, a change of +0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.
“this means that in a few months time unemployment could be well above the first four percent Target”
Watch at 16:43Crypto News: Grayscale Win, SEC, BTC ETFs, ETH Updates & MORE!!
PredictionUnemploymentwill rise to 4%by Dec 3, 2023
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct
Reading when said
3.9%
Sep 4, 2023
Reading at close
4.1%
Sep 3, 2024
Change
+0.20 pp
The call was for unemployment to reach 4.0% between Sep 4, 2023 and Sep 3, 2024. Its high over that window was 4.3% (UNRATE, first releases), so the level was reached.
What have finance YouTubers predicted about unemployment?
As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 12 calls about unemployment that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the US unemployment rate on FRED. At one year: 1 correct, 2 incorrect, 4 within band. The other 5 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
How is a call about unemployment checked?
Against the US unemployment rate on FRED, using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
Is this investment advice?
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.
Every count on this page includes repeats: a call made again in a later video counts again, so the counts can differ from a channel's record, which counts each distinct call once.
