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Stock market predictions on YouTube, checked
By Callsight · Published Oct 9, 2026 · Updated Oct 9, 2026
Figures as of Nov 4, 2026. They change as new windows settle.
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight counts 52 stock market calls that four YouTube channels made in their own words, judged on the S&P 500; 33 are Graham Stephan’s. Of the 52, 41 called for a higher price and 10 for a lower one. At one year, 31 are Correct, 12 Incorrect and 5 Pending; 4 could not be checked.
What did finance YouTubers predict for the stock market?
Most of these calls come from one channel, Graham Stephan. In 46 of the 52, the call was recorded under a word for the market in general, such as “the market” or “stock market”. The method judges a call of that kind on the S&P 500 fund (SPY), under a table fixed once for every channel alike, and the card of such a call says which word was recorded.
Of the 52, 41 called for a higher price and 10 for a lower one; 1 compared the S&P 500 with another asset. The earliest of them was made on Mar 16, 2017, the newest on Sep 9, 2026.
The S&P 500 page lists 102 calls from the channels’ videos, and the record counts 52 of them. Of the rest, 29 are forecasts read out from someone else, such as a bank’s target, listed with their source and never counted. The other 21 are the channels’ own but not scored: 15 whose direction could not be determined with confidence, 5 whose recorded reading is being checked again and 1 about a position the speaker already held.
Each call is checked at six windows, from 30 days to 5 years, and all of them are shown, because a call can be Incorrect at 30 days and Correct at a year. The headline is the one-year window, fixed in advance for every call.
Which channel made the most calls on the S&P 500?
Graham Stephan made 33 of the 52 calls counted here, more than the other three channels together. Andrei Jikh made 11, Coin Bureau 5 and Joseph Carlson 3. The tables count Graham Stephan’s and Andrei Jikh’s calls at each window, call by call, so a call said again, in the same video or a later one, counts again.
| Window | Correct | Incorrect | Other verdict | Pending | Not verifiable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 90 days | 21 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 180 days | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 year | 20 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 years | 22 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 5 years | 17 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 |
| Window | Correct | Incorrect | Other verdict | Pending | Not verifiable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 90 days | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 180 days | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 year | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 3 years | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 5 years | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
The figures here are counts, with no rate. A hit rate says little until it sits beside the base rate of the same calls (how often the price moved the called way anyway), and neither this article nor the S&P 500 page sets a base rate for a single instrument.
At one year, Coin Bureau’s 5 calls stand at 2 Correct, 2 Incorrect and 1 that could not be checked; Joseph Carlson’s 3 stand at 3 Correct and 0 Incorrect.
Every call on the S&P 500, from every channel, is on the S&P 500 page, with its words and the verdict at each window. For Bitcoin, see how accurate YouTubers’ Bitcoin price predictions are.
Did the bullish or the bearish calls do better?
Split by the direction called, the one-year results are:
- Graham Stephan: for a higher price, 19 Correct, 6 Incorrect, 1 Pending and 2 that could not be checked; for a lower price, 1 Correct, 2 Incorrect and 1 Pending.
- Andrei Jikh: for a higher price, 5 Correct, 0 Incorrect and 2 Pending; for a lower price, 1 Correct, 2 Incorrect and 1 Pending.
- Coin Bureau: for a higher price, 2 Correct, 0 Incorrect and 1 that could not be checked; for a lower price, 0 Correct and 2 Incorrect.
- Joseph Carlson: for a higher price, 3 Correct and 0 Incorrect; for a lower price, none.
Here are Graham Stephan’s calls on the price itself, by the year each was made:
| Year made | For a higher price | For a lower price | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correct | Incorrect | Other | Correct | Incorrect | Other | |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2021 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The S&P 500 fund’s one-year return, dividends included, was above zero in 35 of the 43 one-year windows these calls were checked over. Over a stretch when the price mostly rose, a call for a rise is more often Correct whoever makes it, and over one when it mostly fell, a call for a fall is. That is what a base rate measures, and without one these counts cannot say whether either side did better than the market’s own drift. Callsight’s article on whether finance YouTubers beat the market sets each channel’s whole record beside its base rate.
Two of the calls follow, one in each direction. The rule at the end of this article chose them.
“I do believe there's reason to believe that the market rally will continue”Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.
Entry price (first close after the video)
$443.28
Jun 30, 2023
Price at close
$544.22
Jun 28, 2024
Total return, dividends included
+24.5%
SPY closed at $443.28 on Jun 30, 2023. On Jun 28, 2024 it closed at $544.22, a total return of +24.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Correct
1 year
Correct
No deadline was stated; the headline is the one-year window. There the call is Correct, as it is at 30 days, 180 days and 3 years; at 90 days it is Incorrect. Its window at 5 years is still open.
“that last word is key because it suggests that the stock market is headed lower and all the bearish macro factors certainly suggest this is the case”Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.
Entry price (first close after the video)
$390.76
Sep 6, 2022
Price at close
$451.19
Sep 1, 2023
Total return, dividends included
+17.4%
SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. On Sep 1, 2023 it closed at $451.19, a total return of +17.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
No deadline was stated; the headline is the one-year window. There the call is Incorrect, as it is at 90 days, 180 days and 3 years; at 30 days it is Correct. Its window at 5 years is still open.
Why can a call be Incorrect at first and Correct later?
The windows do not always agree. Of the 38 calls counted here with a verdict at both one year and three years, 8 have a different one at each: 6 Incorrect at one year and Correct at three years, all of them calls for a higher price; and 2 Correct at one year and Incorrect at three years, both calls for a lower price. A call for a rise made shortly before a fall can be Incorrect at one year and Correct at three, once the price has climbed back past where it stood when the video went out; a call for a fall made at such a time can go the other way. The one-year verdict is the headline for every call, fixed in advance. The other windows are published beside it, so no verdict is picked afterwards from the window that reads best.
Windows can also disagree inside the first year, as they do on the call below, which the rule at the end of this article chose.
“later toward the end of this month i'm betting the stock market will come back up”Recorded as the stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.
Entry price (first close after the video)
$380.83
Jul 12, 2022
Price at close
$442.46
Jul 11, 2023
Total return, dividends included
+18.1%
SPY closed at $380.83 on Jul 12, 2022. On Jul 11, 2023 it closed at $442.46, a total return of +18.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Correct
1 year
Correct
The words set a deadline, which the card dates to Aug 10, 2022, and the call is Correct there. At one year, the headline window, it is Correct, as it is at 30 days, 180 days and 3 years; at 90 days it is Incorrect. Its window at 5 years is still open.
Who predicted the stock market crash?
This record cannot say who predicted a crash in general: it holds only the channels Callsight tracks, and only what they said in their own words. A call on whether the stock market will crash or correct is also judged another way: by the size of the fall in the S&P 500 from its highest close since the call, set at 20% for a crash and 10% for a correction, or a larger size the speaker named. The rule reads the US stock market as a whole, so a crash call about crypto, one sector or another market is Not verifiable on it. The channels made 93 counted calls filed under a crash, a correction or a bubble bursting, and none of them is among the calls counted here. The rule could read 29 of them; the other 64 are Not verifiable. Callsight’s article on who predicted the recession covers them, beside the calls on a recession and on a housing crash.
Why can’t some calls on the S&P 500 be checked?
At one year, 4 of the 52 calls counted here are Not verifiable, each with the reason on its card: 3 named a figure that is not a price of the fund (2 a percentage and 1 a level of the index); and 1 compared the S&P 500 with another asset, which the method does not check yet and never scores as a plain rise or fall. All 3 price targets counted here are among them. The channels also made 109 remarks filed under the S&P 500 that could not be right or wrong at all, with no direction or nothing to check, so they are not listed as calls. The methodology page says what counts as a call.
How was each call checked?
Each call is quoted word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said. Its entry price is the first daily close strictly after the video went public; a call on the direction is judged on the fund’s total return, dividends included. It is then checked at six windows, from 30 days to 5 years, and one year is the headline. A call that the price will rise or fall is Within band when the move is smaller than 0.5% either way, and a result Within band counts as neither Correct nor Incorrect. Many of these calls are hedged, saying that the market could rise or will probably fall; a hedged call that still names a direction is checked like any other, and its card shows how it was put. The rules are the same for every channel, and the methodology page gives them in full. If you think a call was misread, the corrections page says how to report it. Callsight makes no forecast of its own for the stock market: this article reports what was said and what the price did next.
How these examples were chosen
The cards were chosen on Oct 9, 2026, from the calls on the S&P 500 counted here, by a rule set out before the choosing. In each direction, the rule takes the most recent call on the direction alone (not a price target or a comparison) whose one-year window has closed: first one that is Correct there, then one that is Incorrect there. For the section on windows, it takes the most recent such call, from a video not already used, whose verdicts at the fixed windows that have closed are not all the same. A call was passed over if a question about its reading was open; if its words gave advice, a what-if, an example, a hope or an outlook rather than a forecast; if they did not make plain whose view they gave or which way the price would go; if they named a date or a span that the record did not register as the call’s deadline; or if they named a size or a level, such as new highs, that the rule does not test. That left two places empty on the day: no call for a higher price that is Incorrect at one year and no call for a lower price that is Correct at one year passed those checks. Every call is listed on the S&P 500 page.
Figures are computed by code from the same record as the rest of the site. This article was drafted with the help of AI tools and reviewed by a person before publication. It is not investment advice.