Graham Stephan: SPY will outperform

Said on Sep 9, 2026, at 5:38 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”
Watch at 5:38I Paid Off My 2.875% Mortgage…Dave Ramsey Was Right
PredictionSPYwill outperformChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$600$650$700$750$800Mar 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026Feb 2027May 2027Sep 2027Said on Sep 9, 2026
$600$650$700$750$800Mar 2026Sep 2026Mar 2027Sep 2027Said on Sep 9, 2026

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-REL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-REL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-REL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-REL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-REL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-REL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.

What was said around it

years. the rates could never go up. My rents were really stable and inflation was actively eating away at the debt because if my interest rate was 3% but inflation was also 3%. Kind of cancels each other out and I was basically just getting free money. That's why when anyone would ever ask me, hey Graham, should I pay off my 3 and 12% mortgage early? My answer is always absolutely not. Do not pay off that mortgage early. That is the cheapest money you're ever going to have access to in your entire life. Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property. So much more, in fact, that you'd have money left over to pay off the mortgage in full with money left over to do with whatever you want. Now, I have said that for about 10 years now, until I recently paid off three super low interest rate mortgages, as low as 2.875% 875% fixed for 30 years when I sold those properties. And once I did, everything changed. So, in terms of what happened after the debt was gone, and most surprisingly, why no one regrets paying off their low interest rate mortgage, here's

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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