Graham Stephan: Mortgage rates will rise

Said on Aug 10, 2026, at 9:35 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“your payments are probably going higher.”
Watch at 9:35THE FED JUST RESET THE MARKET - Stocks Hit All-Time-High, Interest Rates Skyrocket!
PredictionMortgage rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 30 days
Within band so far · 30 days

Reading when said

6.69%

Aug 10, 2026

Reading at close

6.71%

Sep 9, 2026

Change

+0.02 pp

Mortgage rates stood at 6.69% at the start of the window and 6.71% at Sep 9, 2026, a change of +0.02 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Pending

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

The window it was checked over

Mortgage ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
5.5%6%6.5%7%7.5%8%202320242025202620262027Said on Aug 10, 2026
5.5%6%6.5%7%7.5%8%2023202420262027Said on Aug 10, 2026

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.69%6.71%Sep 9, 2026+0.02 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Nov 8, 2026——
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Feb 6, 2027——
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 10, 2027——
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 9, 2029——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 9, 2031——
Why: 30 days

Mortgage rates stood at 6.69% at the start of the window and 6.71% at Sep 9, 2026, a change of +0.02 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 8, 2026.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 6, 2027.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 10, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 9, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 9, 2031.

What was said around it

conditions affect the housing market significantly more than interest rates do. If anything, higher interest rates do slow housing activity, but it doesn't crush prices. This means for sellers and homeowners, even though rising interest rates makes your home a lot more expensive to purchase, it doesn't decline in value proportionally. But for the buyers, yes, this does mean that purchasing a property this year is going to cost you a little more. And even though mortgage rates aren't directly tied to what the Federal Reserve does, there is some sort of an impact. And that does mean your payments are probably going higher. So, in terms of what's happening, what this means for you, and who's going to get hit the hardest besides Liupold, here's what you came for. Rate hikes. As of today, the market's pricing in more than a 40% chance that on September 16th, we see a 25 basis point rate hike, as indicated by several Federal Reserve Board members who already voted in favor of the increase. Why? Well, from their perspective, inflation isn't going away. Employment's still pretty strong and the market's frothy, so it could handle a rate increase right now. And if asset prices fall in the process, then

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all