Coin Bureau: Unemployment will rise

Said on Aug 11, 2024, at 15:37 in the video.

What was saidAug 11, 2024

@coinbureau

“it looks like the decline in jobs is going to keep pushing unemployment higher and trigger a recession at least according to the S”

Watch at 15:37We’re In Recession?! Is The Next Economic Collapse Coming?

PredictionUnemploymentwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Within band

Reading when said

4.2%

Aug 11, 2024

Reading at close

4.3%

Aug 11, 2025

Change

+0.10 pp

Unemployment stood at 4.20% at the start of the window and 4.30% at Aug 11, 2025, a change of +0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

UnemploymentWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	4.2%	4.1%Sep 10, 2024	−0.10 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	4.2%	4.2%Nov 9, 2024	0.00 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	4.2%	4.1%Feb 7, 2025	−0.10 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	4.2%	4.3%Aug 11, 2025	+0.10 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Aug 11, 2027	—	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Aug 10, 2029	—	—

Why: 30 days

Unemployment stood at 4.20% at the start of the window and 4.10% at Sep 10, 2024, a change of −0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Unemployment stood at 4.20% at the start of the window and 4.20% at Nov 9, 2024, a change of 0.00 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Unemployment stood at 4.20% at the start of the window and 4.10% at Feb 7, 2025, a change of −0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 11, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 10, 2029.

What was said around it

it's only a matter of time before all the people work in them are let go Elon musk's firing of roughly 80% of Twitter's staff in 2022 seems to have been the watershed moment in the tech sector since that time there have been hundreds of thousands of layoffs in the tech sector now these layoffs are starting to spread to other Industries as employers start realizing just how many jobs there are this is a big problem because most of the people being let go don't have the right skill set for the currently open job roles in short then it looks like the decline in jobs is going to keep pushing unemployment higher and trigger a recession at least according to the S this pertains to the pressing question and that's what comes next the answer is that GDP and unemployment will likely continue Rising GDP will signal that the economy is strong and not in a recession and unemployment will signal that the economy is weak and in a recession thanks to the S rule this Divergence will make it possible for the powers that be to cherry-pick the data to justify their decisions come September the FED could point to the rise in unemployment figures and say hey it's time to gut conversely it could point to

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“rising interest rates at the same time that the labor market is cooling usually results in hiring freezes.”

Aug 10, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Unemployment will rise to 10%

“Apparently, the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026. And then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline. Unemployment is going to rise above 10%.”

Feb 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment — no direction stated

“and then we've also got the unemployment numbers at 4.2% expected versus 4.2 to previous okay okay”

Jun 2, 2025

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment will fall to 4%

“it expects unemployment to rise slightly before falling back to its 4% Target”

Sep 25, 2024

Relayed

Coin BureauUnemploymentwill fall

“this means that unemployment could actually start falling again in the not to distant future”