Coin Bureau: Unemployment will rise

Said on May 1, 2023, at 14:36 in the video.

What was saidMay 1, 2023

@coinbureau

“this means we could start to see unemployment Spike sometime in the summer when all the severance pay starts to run out”

Watch at 14:36Crypto News: Coinbase vs. SEC, RNDR, ICP, Tech Earnings & More!

PredictionUnemploymentwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Within band

Reading when said

3.7%

May 1, 2023

Reading at close

3.9%

Apr 30, 2024

Change

+0.20 pp

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.90% at Apr 30, 2024, a change of +0.20 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

UnemploymentWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	3.7%	3.7%May 31, 2023	0.00 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	3.7%	3.5%Jul 30, 2023	−0.20 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	3.7%	3.9%Oct 28, 2023	+0.20 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	3.7%	3.9%Apr 30, 2024	+0.20 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	3.7%	4.3%Apr 30, 2026	+0.60 pp	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Apr 29, 2028	—	—

Why: 30 days

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.70% at May 31, 2023, a change of 0.00 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.50% at Jul 30, 2023, a change of −0.20 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.90% at Oct 28, 2023, a change of +0.20 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 4.30% at Apr 30, 2026, a change of +0.60 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 29, 2028.

What was said around it

up with the rising cost of living in the United States not only that but most of the layoffs we've seen so far have come from the tech sector almost all the tech Bros who got the boot reportedly left their posts with massive Severance packages we're talking multiple months of health insurance and hundreds of thousands of dollars of severance pay this means that these big Tech employees don't have to rush to find more work this further suppresses the official unemployment statistic because it only counts people who are looking for work this means we could start to see unemployment Spike sometime in the summer when all the severance pay starts to run out anyways as I mentioned earlier there wasn't all that much excitement in the crypto market last week at least among large cap cryptocurrencies at the time of shooting BTC is trying to decide whether it will break up and retest the 30.5 K range or break down and consolidate some more around the 27.5 K range eth appears to be painting a head and shoulders pattern on The Daily but even if this pattern plays out eth shouldn't fall further than 1.7 K eth has been surprisingly strong in dollar terms despite continuing to crumble against BTC

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“rising interest rates at the same time that the labor market is cooling usually results in hiring freezes.”

Aug 10, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Unemployment will rise to 10%

“Apparently, the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026. And then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline. Unemployment is going to rise above 10%.”

Feb 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment — no direction stated

“and then we've also got the unemployment numbers at 4.2% expected versus 4.2 to previous okay okay”

Jun 2, 2025

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment will fall to 4%

“it expects unemployment to rise slightly before falling back to its 4% Target”

Sep 25, 2024

Relayed

Coin BureauUnemploymentwill fall

“this means that unemployment could actually start falling again in the not to distant future”