“it expects unemployment to rise slightly before falling back to its 4% Target”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment will fall to 4%
Said on Sep 25, 2024, at 7:13 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
long-term bond prices to fall and long-term interest rates to rise sound familiar we'll come back to that later though now Jerome went on to give an overview of all the key data points around the economy and inflation as well as where the FED sees them all heading this information is provided in the fed's summary of economic projections or sep a document that it updates at every other fed meeting if you've looked at the most recent SCP you'll know that there's not much to write home about there the FED expects GDP to stay steady at around 2% in the coming years it expects unemployment to rise slightly before falling back to its 4% Target and for inflation to continue falling until it hits its 2% Target the only prediction worth expanding on is the fed's projection for its future interest r rates most fed officials see interest rates falling down to around 3% in the coming years and staying at those levels in the long term this is significant as it suggests that we are now in a higher interest rate environment in case you missed it interest rates had been practically at zero since 2008 now after his review of the SCP Jerome underscored the fact that the FED is focused on the unemployment side
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Unemployment
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Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Unemployment will rise to 10%
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Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment — no direction stated
“and then we've also got the unemployment numbers at 4.2% expected versus 4.2 to previous okay okay”
Jun 2, 2025
Coin BureauUnemploymentwill fall
“this means that unemployment could actually start falling again in the not to distant future”
Sep 25, 2024 · after 1 year
Coin BureauUnemploymentwill rise
“it looks like the decline in jobs is going to keep pushing unemployment higher and trigger a recession at least according to the S”
Aug 11, 2024 · after 1 year
Coin BureauUnemploymentwill rise to 4%
“this means that in a few months time unemployment could be well above the first four percent Target”
Sep 4, 2023 · after 1 year