Coin Bureau: Unemployment will fall

Said on Sep 25, 2024, at 12:11 in the video.

What was saidSep 25, 2024

Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“this means that unemployment could actually start falling again in the not to distant future”

Watch at 12:11New All Time Highs Coming SOON?? Fed Rate Cuts Explained!

PredictionUnemploymentwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Incorrect

Reading when said

4.1%

Sep 25, 2024

Reading at close

4.4%

Sep 25, 2025

Change

+0.30 pp

Unemployment stood at 4.10% at the start of the window and 4.40% at Sep 25, 2025, a change of +0.30 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

UnemploymentWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	4.1%	4.1%Oct 25, 2024	0.00 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	4.1%	4.1%Dec 24, 2024	0.00 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	4.1%	4.2%Mar 24, 2025	+0.10 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	4.1%	4.4%Sep 25, 2025	+0.30 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Sep 25, 2027	—	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Sep 24, 2029	—	—

Why: 30 days

Unemployment stood at 4.10% at the start of the window and 4.10% at Oct 25, 2024, a change of 0.00 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Unemployment stood at 4.10% at the start of the window and 4.10% at Dec 24, 2024, a change of 0.00 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Unemployment stood at 4.10% at the start of the window and 4.20% at Mar 24, 2025, a change of +0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 25, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 24, 2029.

What was said around it

another pressing question which can be summarized as what's causing unemployment to rise Jerome's answer was surprising and that's a surge in labor this was surprising because Jerome specified that the surge in labor was due to record levels of illegal immigration into the US logically this has substantially increased the number of people looking for work and since that's the literal definition of unemployment unemployment has started Rising what Jerome failed to mention was that the influx of illegal immigration has reportedly declined in recent months this means that unemployment could actually start falling again in the not to distant future we'll find out once the next unemployment print comes out on the 10th of October mark your calendars anyways a reporter from Fox Business then asked an even more pressing question and that was whether the FED will go back to a zero interest rate policy AKA Zur Jerome said that he personally doesn't see interest rates going back to zero but admitted there was no way of knowing for sure this ties into what I mentioned earlier and that's that we could be in an era of higher interest rates and possibly even one where interest rates keep going higher this

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“rising interest rates at the same time that the labor market is cooling usually results in hiring freezes.”

Aug 10, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Unemployment will rise to 10%

“Apparently, the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026. And then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline. Unemployment is going to rise above 10%.”

Feb 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment — no direction stated

“and then we've also got the unemployment numbers at 4.2% expected versus 4.2 to previous okay okay”

Jun 2, 2025

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Unemployment will fall to 4%

“it expects unemployment to rise slightly before falling back to its 4% Target”

Sep 25, 2024

Relayed

Coin BureauUnemploymentwill rise

“it looks like the decline in jobs is going to keep pushing unemployment higher and trigger a recession at least according to the S”