Coin Bureau: Unemployment will rise to 4%

The window it was checked over

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

the Unlucky ones unemployment is starting to rise around the world including in the US last month the unemployment rate in the US hit its highest level in over a year and revisions suggest that fewer jobs were added than previously reported to be fair the U.S unemployment rate is still below 4 which is the fed target the caveat is that it's not the level of unemployment that matters it's the direction it's headed in and how fast it's going there as you can see unemployment seems to be rising fast when you average it out over the last few months this means that in a few months time unemployment could be well above the first four percent Target at that time investors will become the lucky ones because this rise in unemployment will put the FED under immense pressure to cut interest rates the caveat is that the FED may not fold at first if you watched our recent summary of the Central Banking Symposium at Jackson Hall you'll know the FED is explicitly looking for unemployment to rise that's because a rise in unemployment is required for core inflation to come down this means the FED could keep rates High even as unemployment Rises but if history is any indication the FED will only be able

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