Graham Stephan: Unemployment will rise

Said on Apr 8, 2020, at 11:12 in the video.

What was saidApr 8, 2020

@grahamstephan

“I have a feeling we're gonna probably see a lot more volatility a lot more unemployment a lot of businesses shutting down and things on paper looking worse”

Watch at 11:12The Bull Market Of 2020 | Did We Miss The Stock Market Bottom?

PredictionUnemploymentwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Incorrect

Reading when said

14.7%

Apr 8, 2020

Reading at close

6.1%

Apr 8, 2021

Change

−8.60 pp

Unemployment stood at 14.70% at the start of the window and 6.10% at Apr 8, 2021, a change of −8.60 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

UnemploymentWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	14.7%	13.3%May 8, 2020	−1.40 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	14.7%	10.2%Jul 7, 2020	−4.50 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	14.7%	6.9%Oct 5, 2020	−7.80 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	14.7%	6.1%Apr 8, 2021	−8.60 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	14.7%	3.4%Apr 8, 2023	−11.30 pp	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	14.7%	4.2%Apr 7, 2025	−10.50 pp	—

Why: 30 days

Unemployment stood at 14.70% at the start of the window and 13.30% at May 8, 2020, a change of −1.40 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Unemployment stood at 14.70% at the start of the window and 10.20% at Jul 7, 2020, a change of −4.50 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Unemployment stood at 14.70% at the start of the window and 6.90% at Oct 5, 2020, a change of −7.80 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Unemployment stood at 14.70% at the start of the window and 3.40% at Apr 8, 2023, a change of −11.30 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Unemployment stood at 14.70% at the start of the window and 4.20% at Apr 7, 2025, a change of −10.50 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

the day we have no idea how the markets are going to react and at which point we begin going back up like if I were to guess and just trust me guys like this is just a pure guess I would say we probably go up and down in price within about a 10 percent range over the next few weeks or a few months and then slowly we'll begin moving back up with more Green Day's than red but again that's just a total guess and I would not be surprised if things continue to get worse and the markets continue dropping further until then I have a feeling we're gonna probably see a lot more volatility a lot more unemployment a lot of businesses shutting down and things on paper looking worse but I think long term it's going to cause a lot of businesses to restructure how they operate it's gonna leave way more room for error and I have a feeling a lot of people are gonna find that they're way more productive working at home than they are going into an office and from there I believe that for a long-term investor as in you don't need this money for the next five to 15 years you're probably gonna be best off just buying every week dollar cost averaging into the markets buying the dips buying the gains and long

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“rising interest rates at the same time that the labor market is cooling usually results in hiring freezes.”

Aug 10, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Unemployment will rise to 10%

“Apparently, the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026. And then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline. Unemployment is going to rise above 10%.”

Feb 27, 2026

Relayed